The PP's dilemma: how to stop Vox?

Madrid / Barcelona / Palma / ValenciaAt the PP congress held just last July, Alberto Nuñez Feijóo He made an appeal to the entire right wing to close ranks behind him to conquer La Moncloa. From the moderate center to the far right, but all around one political force, the People's Party (PP), to oust Pedro Sánchez. However, six months after that conclave, the PP finds itself forced to qualify its discourse, since the cycle of consecutive elections that it itself devised has shown that They can't wield power without VoxIn this sense, the Aragonese elections last SundayThe PP, where it lost two seats, has opened a discussion in Genoa about its relationship with the far right. This analysis, which began at the board meeting, will be conditioned by how negotiations progress in the autonomous communities. Feijóo presided on Monday in MadridIn which he called for "responsibility" from Vox. This Friday, at the presentation of his candidacy for Castile and León, Alfonso Martínez Mañueco would take a different tone against the far right: "We set the conditions."

PP sources consulted by ARA recall that the dilemma they face with Vox is the same one faced by the entire traditional right in Europe. From the German CDU, which has decided to create a cordon sanitaire around the far right, to the Austrians, which have included them in the governing coalition. "The cordon sanitaire has proven not to work," a PP leader from Madrid bluntly states, who has always been reluctant to adopt this strategy because the Popular Party, for example, was previously a victim in Catalonia. In his opinion, and acknowledging the difficulty of confronting this type of "populism," the PP is opting to allow Vox to assume governmental responsibilities and be forced to confront contradictions. "Vox benefits from instability; it has a protest vote," this source analyzes. That's why they argue that the way for them to start losing momentum is by governing.

"There's no cause-and-effect relationship between making deals with Vox and its growth," emphasizes a source from the Valencian PP. "It's empirical evidence that populist parties suffer attrition when they govern," adds a voice from the Balearic PP. A month and a half ago, the Andalusian president, Juanma Moreno Bonilla, made the same diagnosis: "Vox will only start to decline when it enters government and assumes responsibilities because then it will suffer the wear and tear of realizing that its policies aren't viable." Meanwhile, the president of Castile and León, Alfonso Fernández Mañueco, said: "Their policies were a failure, sometimes resounding, and they ran away. The difficult thing is to enter government and govern effectively," he maintained at an event. The reason

In fact, Vox has been soaring in the polls since the summer of 2024 It came from all the regional governments Hiding behind the PP's immigration policy. "We have to accept that they've done well, because governing is complex and requires political maturity," Feijóo admitted a month ago in an interview with Servimedia. But he warned Abascal: "When a party runs for office with the intention of not governing, it has no right to prevent anyone else from governing." Why, then, is Vox now demanding to join the governments of Extremadura and Aragon? One leader consulted interprets this as them setting the bar very high—they're asking for the Interior Ministry, immigration policy, and agriculture—because they know the PP isn't going to cede such significant power: "They just want to create chaos and benefit electorally from anti-politics," he opines.

Despite the ongoing talks with Vox at the regional level, the PP headquarters in Madrid reiterates that Feijóo's commitment is to govern alone and avoid a coalition after the Spanish elections. "I'm not aware of any changes," sources close to the PP leader clarified. And they draw a line between the two approaches: "The regional level is different." However, the PP spokesperson in Congress, Ester Muñoz, is fully in favor of building bridges with the far right: "We would be making an unforgivable mistake if we weren't able to seize the opportunity the Spanish people are giving us; we cannot let them down."

Risk of repeat elections

Those consulted admitted to ARA that they are not sure they can unblock the investiture process in all the autonomous communities. Given this situation, some leaders are also advocating for repeat elections if the far right "demands things that cannot be fulfilled." This would imply publicly stating that Santiago Abascal's party is preventing them from governing and that "we must stand up" against the "pincer movement with the PSOE." In this regard, this source harshly criticizes that Vito Quiles will be invited at the end of the Aragonese campaign. A presence that the party's number two, Miguel Tellado, celebrated by praising the "gratitude" of thousands of Spaniards for the "courage" of the far-right agitator, one of those who boycotts press conferences in Congress.

Another Popular Party leader argues that the elections make it clear that "we have to make a pact with Vox," but without them "imposing their entire program," and places the limits in the law and the Constitution. And another source confirms that Santiago Abascal "feeds off left-wing people fed up with the lack of immigration control." In fact, a PP official in Madrid recalls that Vox has taken a turn that distances it from them: if at the beginning it was a kind of splinter group from the PP with ultraconservative or neoliberal people, now they have taken on a Falangist, anti-liberal, and workerist veneer.

The territorial nuances

The main lines of the relationship with Vox are set by the PP headquarters in Madrid, but there are relevant nuances among male PP members. It could be said that while María Guardiola is among the leaders most reluctant to make deals with the far right—she already opposed it in 2023 despite later having to swallow the bitter pill—in the Valencian Community, Juanfran Pérez Llorca represents the other extreme. Guardiola herself admitted this week that I would prefer an abstention from the PSOE to a coalition with Vox – after Ignacio Garriga announced the No resounding for the first round—but then backtracked.

Sources within the Valencian PP defend the need to reach an understanding with Vox, but also warn of the "need to understand the different circumstances" of each autonomous community and not try to apply the same pattern to all territories. "It's very difficult to seal an agreement with someone you don't get along with," they summarize regarding the Extremadura case.

Where they also have a tense exchange is in the Balearic Islands: the PP has tried to stop Vox on the issue of Catalan. If the far-right party were to enter the government, it would blow up Marga Prohens' strategy of emphasizing regionalism, which she considers key to maintaining a parliamentary majority. Furthermore, sources within the Vox party warn that they already know what they would ask for if they had sufficient negotiating power: the Ministry of Education, from where they could attack Catalan in schools. Sources within the Balearic government are calling for calm: "There's still a year and a half until the elections; the results in Aragon won't make us nervous."