The ghost of corruption against that of neo-fascism

MadridDon't think of an elephant... Did you think of one? Probably, yes. Now you must be wondering why this article starts like this, asking about an elephant, but the answer is simple: to show how the A-B-C of any electoral campaign operates and that it is key to winning elections. As George Lakoff theorized in his reference book Don't Think of an Elephant! (2004, Chelsea Green Publishing), whoever sets the framework for the debate and manages to talk about what they want and in the language they choose, has a high chance of taking victory at the polls. And this is the underlying battle that the PP and the PSOE have been fighting for months in Madrid, as whoever manages to impose the terms of public discussion is the one who comes out with an advantage for the next general elections. The confrontation is between two visions: those who brandish the ghost of corruption (the PP) against those who threaten with the ghost of neo-fascism (the PSOE).

In the case of the popular party, their long-distance race began a year ago. The slogan was "Mafia or democracy" in the series of rallies they held against Pedro Sánchez's government following the first cases of alleged corruption that began to affect the executive, basically the Koldo case. Their objective is to present the next elections as a choice between a corrupt government, which according to them would be Sánchez's, and a clean one that would be represented by Alberto Núñez Feijóo. This week, the leader of the PP has even described the Spanish head of government as an "authoritarian president".According to the populars, all the cases that the PP has pursued so far, especially Gürtel, represent an era prior to the Galician leader and they consider that Feijóo can truly lead the change to put an end to the "mafia", which they classify into three areas: political, institutional and family. For Feijóo, Sánchez is politically corrupt – in the sense that he has no principles – because he became president in exchange for amnesty, which he had previously denied; by institutional corruption the PP refers to the cases that the courts are investigating, while the family one it limits to the cases of Sánchez's brother and his wife, but it also emphasizes the sauna businesses that Sánchez's father-in-law had and which are often referred to as "brothels" from the right.

Regarding this, in recent weeks the PP has also added the accusation of wanting to steal the elections through "electoral engineering" via the clean law. José María Aznar, still a figurehead of the right, concludes this when he emphasizes the importance of the next elections and says that "a change of system" is at stake.

In line with trying to impose this framework, the PP is also in no hurry for elections, even while calling for them: unlike Moncloa, they interpret that the more time that passes, the worse the wear and tear will be for Sánchez. The issues chosen by the Popular Party are also not by chance, as an organization it has a powerful public listening machinery to see how people react to the issues it puts into public debate. A very careful data monitoring strategy that is also managed from Moncloa to grasp, at every moment, the direction of Spanish public opinion and to get the approaches and proposals right.

The Moncloa contrast strategy

Although the PP brandishes the ghost of corruption, the framework that Moncloa wants to impose is that of democrats vs. neo-fascism, which it considers to represent the policies of the PP and Vox if they come to govern the State. That is why they take advantage of any measure they put on the table to contrast it with their model: the clear example is that of sick leave, which Feijóo questioned, mixing it with absenteeism: "It is clear which side he is on. We are on the side of those who get up early, work, and deserve protection when their health fails," replied Sánchez. This week, he has also taken advantage of Mariano Rajoy's racist comment about the French team, contrasting it with policies for regularizing immigrants.

Sánchez has introduced another element to try to unite the left-wing vote. "This is a government that annoys the elites," he has proclaimed several times from the Congress of Deputies, alluding to traditional economic powers, but also to the booming large technology companies, which Moncloa places as a clear pillar of this neo-fascism. In this context, the Spanish president has proposed prohibiting the use of social networks for minors under sixteen years of age or punishing technology executives with criminal liability who misuse algorithms.

The figure that synthesizes, in Moncloa's opinion, this new world that Sánchez wants to combat is Donald Trump. That is why a direct confrontation has been established, and the midterm elections to be held in November in the United States are also relevant. If the Republicans lose ground, they consider it will be the beginning of the fall of the ultra wave and that the PSOE, in Spain, may still be able to surf and win.

Far from giving up the game, even though all polls (except the CIS) give a majority to the PP and Vox, the Spanish government is not throwing in the towel. They interpret that the demographic data, despite having retreated compared to 2023, are not so bad for the PSOE considering that they are in the toughest moment of the legislature: without a moral reference due to the outbreak of the Zapatero case, with the first convictions in the Ábalos case and the continuous scandals of the Leire case.

Furthermore, the Spanish government believes that citizens will eventually interpret that there is a will on the part of the right (judicial, media, and political) to bring them down and that this may produce a kind of immunization to scandals on the part of the left-wing electorate. They interpret that cases like that of Sánchez's brother, already convicted, or that of the Spanish president's wife, Begoña Gómez, give veracity to their position. And, even so, they maintain that they will fight even if Sánchez himself or the party is indicted.

They cling to data: according to the latest CIS, three out of four Spaniards consider that justice is not impartial when it investigates parties. This, added to a last-minute mobilization of voters (especially in Catalonia and the Basque Country) in the face of the horizon that may come, they believe may be enough for the miracle to happen again, as in 2023, when everyone already considered Sánchez to be finished. The speech of the President of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, this Monday in Madrid, synthesized the strategy: it is either Sánchez or "political nothingness" – he said –; and he warned that it was not just a conservative alternative, but also a "regression". When will the citizen have to decide? In 2027. What is not decided is whether before the municipal elections in May or after: when it suits Pedro Sánchez best, who is the one who has the red button to call them.