"Sánchez will try to steal the elections": the right is already working on the fraud theory

BarcelonaIt's not new, but it does intensify every day. The PP of Madrid and the far-right Vox are shamelessly spreading the theory of electoral fraud. In the same vein as Donald Trump in the United States after his 2020 defeat – which ended in a failed coup insurrection – and as the Spanish right had already hinted with attacks on mail-in voting in both the last general elections and the Extremaduran contests, the flag of electoral fraud, which points to Pedro Sánchez as guilty, is once again flying.

With a solemn tone, the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, issued a warning last Friday: "I want to say very firmly that Sánchez will try to steal the next elections." The reason? A supposed plan to adulterate the results through "massive naturalizations." It's not the first time he's said it, and in fact, last September he had already warned that "Sánchez will do everything possible so that the elections are not held in conditions of normality and legality" because "his model is Nicolás Maduro." The theory he wants Spanish voters to share is that, since the "coup plotter" Sánchez will not win at the polls, he will try to "modify the electoral roll" by "distributing nationalities without verifying data."

A day earlier, the president of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, snapped: "How can we not suspect the haste with which Pedro Sánchez is rushing to massively regularize and massively naturalize?" The same thing she said two days later on Telemadrid: "Right now, by twisting the rules, these electoral rolls are being inflated. I have no doubt," she assured. But in February she was already talking about "census manipulation" and in mid-March in OK Diario

she directly pointed to electoral fraud. This Monday, the general secretary of the Catalan PP, Santi Rodríguez, joined the theory: "The Spanish electoral roll is being altered, and this could have a translation to the polls. Confidence, the minimum regarding Sánchez," he said.

Toni Rodon also conducted an analysis that determined that the socialists would benefit most from the migrant voteThe false difference

While it is true that socialists get more votes among those born abroad, there are nuances. If we look at the CIS barometer for the first quarter of the year, in global data, the PSOE rises to 30.4% sympathy among those born abroad – five points more than their average among the electorate –, while the PP falls to 15.5%, less than three points compared to their average support in the poll. And in the case of Vox, it gets more support among surveyed foreigners (15.2%) than the average (12.5%). This is explained by Latin American votes, which is the important population group in this case because it is the one that can fundamentally be covered by the law of grandchildren.

Extremadura, after a robbery at a Correos officeThere is great heterogeneity. In Catalonia, Toni Rodon also did an analysis that determined that socialists would benefit the most from migrant votes, according to CEO data, but PP and Vox also benefited among Latin Americans (10% and 15% respectively). The PSC, however, predominates with 25%, although in Africa socialists reach 60%. All in all, the CEO revealed that among foreigners, 18.9% of Latin Americans would not even vote, a percentage that on the rest of the continents is close to 10%.

However, in the same interview with OK Diario, Ayuso reveals the truth hidden by the ghost of electoral manipulation: "It is not known exactly what each one would vote for because, however little one has a minimum of rigor, one sees from the outside that what is happening in Spain is catastrophic. [...] Therefore, it is a lot to think that this vote will be yours. But what is deniable, or at least I think it should catch our attention, is what is intended and who is behind it," she said.

Be that as it may, it is not the first time that the PP has joined theories of this style against the PSOE: in Extremadura, after a robbery at a Correos office, the same Extremaduran president, the popular María Guardiola, waved this flag. And in the last elections, the PP played with confusion regarding postal voting, especially a posteriori, with speculations about the role that trusted individuals like former PSOE militant Leire Díez might have had in Correos in the past.

The precedent of Trump's fear

Nevertheless, Trump's case still allows us to see how fear is spreading and how democracy in the U.S. has deteriorated after these conspiracy theories. In the selection process, various federal judge candidates have not even wanted to answer that it was Joe Biden who won the 2020 elections against Donald Trump. As it is a "matter of political controversy", they preferred to say that Biden was "certified winner", to prevent Trumpism from sidelining them from the race.