"Sánchez will try to steal the elections": the right wing is already working on the rigging theory

BarcelonaIt is not new, but it intensifies every day. The PP of Madrid and the far-right Vox are spreading the theory of the rigged election without any qualms. In the same vein as Donald Trump in the United States after his defeat in 2020 –which ended in a failed coup insurrection– and as the Spanish right has already been hinting with attacks on mail-in voting in both the last general elections and the Extremaduran elections, the flag of electoral fraud that points to Pedro Sánchez as guilty is once again being raised.

With a solemn tone, the leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, issued a warning last Friday: "I want to state very firmly that Sánchez will try to steal the next elections." The reason? An alleged plan to tamper with the results through "massive nationalizations." It is not the first time he has said this, and in fact, last September he had already warned that "Sánchez will do everything possible so that the elections are not held in conditions of normality and legality" because "his model is Nicolás Maduro." The theory he wants Spanish voters to share is that, since the "coup plotter" Sánchez will not win at the polls, he will try to "modify the electoral roll" by "distributing nationalities without verifying data".

A day earlier, the president of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, snapped: "How can we not suspect the rush Pedro Sánchez has to massively regularize and massively nationalize?" The same thing she said two days later on Telemadrid: "Right now, by playing with the rules, these electoral rolls are being inflated. I have no doubt about it," she assured. But in February she was already talking about the "manipulation of the electoral roll" and in mid-March in OK Diario

she directly pointed to the rigged election. This Monday, the general secretary of the Catalan PP, Santi Rodríguez, has joined the theory: "The Spanish electoral roll is being altered, and this could have a translation to the polls. Minimal confidence regarding Sánchez," he said.

The turning point accelerated last week, when the Minister of Foreign Affairs, José Manuel Albares, made public from Mexico the data on the number of naturalizations following the application of the democratic memory law, which allows grandchildren and great-grandchildren of those exiled by Francoism to become full Spanish citizens, even if they live abroad. The fact that there have already been 2.5 million applications and half a million have already been approved has been used by the right-wing, ignoring that the participation of foreigners in electoral processes is much lower than the average. Ayuso and Abascal, moreover, are mixing doubts about the future electoral process with the alleged adulteration years ago of various internal PSOE votes, which are once again topical in various Spanish media.

The false difference

While it is true that socialists capture more votes among those born abroad, there are nuances. If we look at the CIS barometer for the first quarter of the year, in global data the PSOE rises to 30.4% sympathy among those born abroad – five points more than its average among the electorate –, while the PP falls to 15.5%, less than three points compared to its average support in the survey. And in the case of Vox, it obtains more support among those born abroad surveyed (15.2%) than the average (12.5%). This is explained by the Latin American vote, which is the important population group in this case because it is the one that can fundamentally be covered by the law of clean ones.

Although in the CIS sample foreigners represent a small part of those surveyed, some substantial differences must be taken into account: while Moroccan respondents opt for the PSOE with 78% and 8.8% for the PP, among Venezuelans only 14.9% are socialists, 21.8% are popular and 30.9% for Vox; in Argentina, on the other hand, 24.3% lean towards the PSOE, 27% towards the PP, 17.3% for Vox and 4% for Sumar, and in Colombia socialists triumph with 35.8%, while in Cuba 48% of those surveyed sympathize with Vox.

There is great heterogeneity. In Catalonia, Toni Rodon also carried out an analysis that determined that socialists would benefit most from the migrant vote, according to CEO data, but PP and Vox also benefited among Latin Americans (10% and 15% respectively). The PSC, however, predominates with 25%, although in Africa socialists reach 60%. In any case, the CEO revealed that among foreigners, 18.9% of Latin Americans would not even vote, a percentage that on other continents is around 10%.

Now, in the same interview with OK Diario Ayuso highlights the truth hidden by the ghost of electoral manipulation: "It is not known exactly what each one would vote because, however little one has a minimum of rigor, one sees from the outside that what is happening in Spain is catastrophic. [...] Therefore, it is a lot to think that this vote will be yours. But what is deniable, or at least I think it should draw our attention, is what is intended and who is behind it," she said.

Be that as it may, it is not the first time that the PP has joined theories of this style against the PSOE: in Extremadura, after a robbery in a Correos office, the same regional president, the popular María Guardiola, waved this flag. And in the last elections, the PP played at confusion with postal voting, especially a posteriori, with speculations about the role that trust positions like former PSOE militant Leire Díez could have had in Correos in the past.

The precedent of Trump's fear

However, the Trump case still allows us to see how fear is spreading and how democracy in the US has deteriorated after these conspiracy theories. In the selection process, several candidates for federal judgeship have not even wanted to answer that Joe Biden was the one who won the 2020 election against Donald Trump. Since it is a "matter of political controversy", they preferred to say that Biden was "certified winner", to avoid Trumpism sidelining them from the race.