Waiting for Pedro Sánchez with the PSOE prepared for the elections

Barcelona / MadridThe last time he took a few days to reflect, Pedro Sánchez returned with "more strength", ready to "put a stop to the politics of shame". During those five days in April 2024 –in the middle of the election campaign in Catalonia–, everyone was waiting for his decision, which at that time had to do with the attacks his wife received, today about to be tried for embezzlement and influence peddling. Now things are slightly different: no one expects him to step aside, but everyone is waiting for him to make a decision. Will there be elections before the end of the year? In the PSOE they are prepared and with each passing day the voices pointing out that the legislature is over are growing.

The weekend has passed, tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets to demand a general strike and, for the moment, Sánchez is maintaining his agenda for this Monday. At 9:30 AM he is inaugurating the National Congress of Family Business in Madrid and afterwards he has the meeting of the PSOE's federal executive. It will probably be there where it is finally discussed which is the most interesting scenario for the socialists. If he opts for the electoral path, the Constitution states that he would first have to convene the council of ministers to explain it and, afterwards, communicate it to the king, who is responsible for decreeing the dissolution of the Courts, and who this Monday begins an official trip to Finland.

"History will judge them sooner and more forcefully than they imagine," said Sánchez to the deputies of the PP, Vox and Junts at the end of Friday's session, once the failure of the two housing decrees was confirmed. If they must be on a Sunday (only the general elections of 1977, 1979 and 1982 were on a weekday, although in Catalonia they were not held on a Sunday in 2006 or 2017 either), the earliest they could be is November 29. A scenario that would imply signing the decree for the dissolution of the Courts this very Monday so that it would be published on Tuesday in the BOE. In any case, sources consulted by the ARA have pointed out throughout the weekend that the decision had not been made and that it will be Sánchez himself who takes it, the only person with the constitutional power to do so.

Advice

During the weekend, sources close to the Spanish government acknowledged that Sánchez has held conversations about a hypothetical early election. In private, he has called to ask for advice and has also received it from people he trusts, both in the government and in the PSOE. In public, he has seen a group of barons socialists pressuring him to put an end to the legislature. This has been done at least by the leader in Castile and León, Carlos Martínez, who yesterday asked that they be held "in November better than in December and in December better than in January"; the one from Castile-La Mancha, Emiliano García-Page, and the barons from the Basque Country, Eneko Andueza, and Extremadura, Álvaro Sánchez Cotrina. The one who has not taken a public position is the President of the Generalitat, Salvador Illa, who has a much closer relationship with the Spanish president. Sources close to the PSC leader explain that he will support whatever decision Sánchez makes. In the background of all this, there is also a request that some barons socialists, as well as mayoral candidates, have been making to the Spanish president for months, both in public and in private: that he submit himself to the polls first so that the municipal and regional elections of next May 23rd cannot turn into a plebiscite on Sanchismo.

Until now, the polls have not been favorable to the PSOE, and even less so to the parties to its left. Only the CIS, presided over by the academic-questioned José Félix Tezanos, has always predicted first place for it. The PP has been demanding elections for some time, and the Popular Party members have continued to do so these days. It started with Alberto Núñez Feijóo on Friday itself, and this Sunday it was, among many others, the deputy Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo who challenged Sánchez: "Come on, democrat, dare to call elections".

The latest poll that has emerged is not, however, very promising for those who defend this idea. The poll by La Vanguardia on hypothetical Catalan elections reinforces the idea of a fall for the PSC –one of the main electoral supports of the PSOE– and a major rise for the far-right, both of Aliança Catalana, which would rival the socialists for first place, and of Vox.

The left tries to organize itself

The PP and Vox are eager to go to elections, even if the reason for calling them is housing. The Ceuta crisis is not yet overcome, cases of alleged corruption are piling up around the Moncloa, the government's weakness is becoming evident in Parliament, and even Carles Puigdemont is about to return. But the left arrives with more problems. ERC does not want elections because all pending agreements with the PSOE would lapse, as Oriol Junqueras has made clear. In Podemos, Ione Belarra has also positioned herself against the electoral call because what must be done, she says, is to re-approve the housing decrees. Sánchez could do it even if he opted for an early election: the council of ministers would have to meet this Monday urgently and approve them. In fact, it would no longer be the full Congress that would have to validate them, but the permanent deputation, and in this body the PP, Vox, and Junts do not hold a majority.

But whoever saw things the bleakest until now was Sumar and its satellites. Without having closed either the candidate or the parties that would have to integrate the Broad Front with which they are christening the new electoral contraption, Yolanda Díaz's successors have called the presentation of the candidacy for next October 17th. Then they will present their roadmap, but if Sánchez presses the electoral button they will have to accelerate the reflection period.