Moreno Bonilla calls Andalusian elections for May 17th

MadridThe Andalusian president, Juanma Moreno Bonilla, announced Monday night the dissolution of the Andalusian Parliament and the calling of early elections for May 17. This will entail the departure from the Spanish government of the First Vice President and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, to become the PSOE candidate, thus resulting in a change in the national government.

Moreno appeared at the San Telmo Palace, asserting that May 17th is the most "ideal" date to encourage participation in elections that have been brought forward slightly, as they were originally scheduled for June at the latest. The Popular Party leader seeks to retain his absolute majority to continue governing the Andalusian Regional Government, which he assumed in 2019 following a historic shift in the political landscape of this traditionally socialist region. This is, in fact, the great unknown for Bonilla, since polls do not predict a change of left-wing government at present. The question is whether he will be able to continue governing alone or will become dependent on Vox, as has happened to many other PP leaders. So far in this election cycle, no regional PP leader has managed to break free from the constraints of the far right, to which the Andalusian leader was already linked in 2016.

Now, Moreno Bonilla has decided to call elections right after the Castile and León elections, where the People's Party (PP) gained support and Vox stagnated (despite holding the key to governing). With this call, Moreno Bonilla is taking advantage of the positive momentum the PP is riding. Furthermore, he has caught his rival, Montero, off guard (the polls are not favorable for her), and the parties to the left of the Socialist Party (PSOE) are divided. According to the electoral calendar, there are 20 days to register coalitions, and therefore, that is the time that United Left (IU), Sumar, and Podemos will have, after failing to win seats in the Castile and León parliament, to decide whether to join forces in this election. Currently, IU and Sumar are running under the Por Andalucía platform, whose candidate is Antonio Maíllo, while Podemos is running independently. In addition, there is another left-wing list: Adelante Andalucía, which is presenting its own candidate with demands for self-government.

Changes in the Spanish government

The decision to call elections now implies changes in the Spanish government. Minister Montero has always said that the moment the Andalusian parliament is dissolved—which will be this Tuesday—she will leave her post as Finance Minister to become the PSOE candidate for the presidency of the regional government. When contacted by ARA, her inner circle confirmed that it will be "soon," without specifying a timeline.

With Montero's departure, there are two options: the Spanish president could opt for a surgical reshuffle within the cabinet, as he did with Pilar Alegría in Aragon (at that time, he appointed then-Minister Elma Saiz as spokesperson and Milagros Tolón as Minister of Education); or he could take advantage of the opportunity to carry out a broad reshuffle to face the final stretch of his term. So far, government sources have leaned toward the first option, even suggesting the possibility of merging the Treasury and Economy ministries, currently headed by Carlos Cuerpo, despite the fact that in Spain they have traditionally been two separate ministries. In any case, beyond the sectoral portfolio, Sánchez will also have to decide who will assume the first vice-presidency of the government. The Andalusian referendum will be one of the key issues surrounding Tuesday's cabinet meeting.