Moreno Bonilla calls Andalusian elections for May 17th

MadridThe Andalusian president, Juanma Moreno Bonilla, announced Monday night the dissolution of the Andalusian Parliament and the calling of early elections for May 17. This will result in the departure from the Spanish government of the First Vice President and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, as she is the Socialist Party (PSOE) candidate, and will therefore lead to a change in the national government.

Moreno appeared at the San Telmo Palace and asserted that May 17th is the most "ideal" date to encourage participation in elections that have been brought forward slightly, as they were originally scheduled for June at the latest. The Popular Party leader seeks to retain his absolute majority to continue governing the Andalusian Regional Government, which he assumed in 2019 following a historic shift in the political landscape of this traditionally socialist region. This is, in fact, the great unknown for Bonilla, since polls do not currently predict a change of left-wing government. The question is whether he will be able to continue governing alone or whether he will become dependent on Vox, as is the case for many PP leaders. So far in this electoral cycle, no baron Popular has achieved its goal of getting rid of the constraint of the far right, to which the Andalusian president was already linked in 2016.

Now, Moreno Bonilla has decided to call elections right after the Castile and León elections, in which the People's Party (PP) increased its support and Vox stagnated (despite holding the key to governing). With this call, Moreno Bonilla is taking advantage of the positive momentum the PP is riding. Furthermore, he has caught his rival, Montero, off guard (the polls are not favorable for her); the parties to the left of the Socialist Party (PSOE) are already divided. According to the electoral calendar, there are 20 days to register coalitions, and therefore, that is the time that United Left (IU), Sumar, and Podemos will have to decide—after failing to win any seats in the Castile and León parliament—whether to join forces in this election. Currently, IU and Sumar are running with the Per Andalucía platform, whose candidate is Antonio Maíllo; while Podemos is running independently. In addition, there is another left-wing list, Endavant Andalusia, which is presenting its own candidacy with demands for self-government.

Changes in the Spanish government

The decision to call elections now implies changes in the Spanish government. Minister Montero has always said that the moment the Andalusian Parliament is dissolved—which will be this Tuesday—she will leave her post as Finance Minister to become the PSOE candidate for the presidency of the regional government. When contacted by ARA, her inner circle confirmed that it will be "soon," without specifying a timeline.

With Montero's departure, two options are on the table: either the Spanish president opts for a surgical reshuffle within the cabinet, as he did with Pilar Alegría in Aragon (at that time, he appointed then-Minister Elma Saiz as spokesperson and Milagros Tolón as Minister of Education); or he takes advantage of the opportunity to carry out a broad reshuffle to face the final stretch of his term. So far, government sources have leaned toward the first option, even considering the possibility of merging the Treasury and Economy ministries, currently headed by Carlos Cuerpo, despite the fact that in Spain they have traditionally been two separate ministries. In any case, beyond the sectoral portfolio, Sánchez will also have to decide who will assume the first vice-presidency of the government. The Andalusian referendum will be one of the key issues looming over Tuesday's cabinet meeting.