Has Spain become right-wing?

BarcelonaIf we were to stop a few people on the street and ask them if they perceive that society has become more conservative, the answer would surely be affirmative. This feeling would possibly arise with more force if we reminded them of the electoral support projection in most districts for the PP and Vox, which are on the way to taking a significant part of the seat pie. The events in Ceuta, the increasingly visible contrary responses in the media and on social networks regarding immigration or gender equality or the visibility in some circles of influencers or conservative public figures, also in terms of taxes or the welfare state, push to reinforce the idea that we are living in a conservative period.

This feeling, however, coexists with elements that pull in the opposite direction. The desire to intervene more forcefully in the housing market or the defense of pension, health, or public education systems are issues viewed from a progressive perspective with a high degree of transversality in public opinion and among voters of different parties. After all, Philip Converse already said in the mid-sixties of the last century that a significant part of the citizenry does not have structured ideological systems, which makes them fall into an apparent ideological inconsistency.

Is this buzz about the recent shift of Spanish society towards conservative positions true, then? One way to approach it is by analyzing a good handful of surveys, specifically around forty polls conducted since 2002, which reflect the opinion of almost half a million people. All these surveys contain similar questions about redistributive and economic issues, on the one hand, and about topics related to immigration or gender equality, on the other. These questions, which for the moment are only available until 2024, are grouped into the dimensions of economy and values, two aspects that usually encapsulate what we understand by left and right.

If we take a look at all the combined data (via different advanced statistical strategies), we see that the percentage of Spaniards who consider themselves right-wing has increased by about eight percentage points since 2002. In contrast, the left and the center have remained quite stable. The data also tell us that, within the right-wing bloc, the group that grows the most is the far-right. On the left, the far-left also increases, but it does so to a lesser degree.

Economic indicators also show a similar trend. Especially since 2015, a good part of Spanish society has moved toward more liberal redistributive and economic positions, that is, more in favor of reducing taxes and the size of the public sector, and economic inequalities cease to be a priority, among others. In particular, the conservative trend in the economic sphere is concentrated among people in the center and on the right. In contrast, people on the left have not moved compared to 2002.

This movement towards conservative positions is not detected when we look at the opinions of Spaniards regarding gender equality and the rights of the LGTBI community or regarding immigration. Especially in the first case, opposition to gender equality and sexist positions have decreased significantly since 2002. People on the right continue to have more restrictive opinions than those on the left on the matter, but the gap between the two groups has narrowed.

Polarization regarding immigration

Regarding immigration, on the other hand, there has been an evolution towards progressive positions since 2002, but much weaker. In fact, the major change has occurred among people on the left, who in 2024 were much more pro-immigration than people on the left in 2002. Conversely, among people on the right, the trend has been more stable, which has caused the differences between the two groups to grow. In other words, in recent decades, opinion regarding immigration has polarized, especially following a movement towards progressive positions on the part of the left.

Therefore, to the question of whether Spanish society has become more conservative, the answer is “it depends.” While this has occurred in economic and redistributive issues, in matters of gender and, to a lesser extent, in issues of immigration, the journey has been the opposite. However, this last pattern has many nuances: while Spanish society has become more progressive in matters of immigration and gender equality, there are certain subgroups that have made a notable conservative journey. For example, young men, moderate and right-wing people, or people with a lower socioeconomic status have today much more restrictive opinions in the field of immigration and gender equality (especially men) than they did twenty-five years ago.