The return of Puigdemont: the most difficult part remains

MadridNot even the best screenwriter could have foreseen it better. Three years after the amnesty gave Pedro Sánchez another term, the amnesty has also put an end to it. The acceleration of events following the eviction case of Maricarmen Abascal has meant that the dissolution of the Courts has practically coincided with the Constitutional Court's order to the Supreme Court to immediately apply the amnesty to the leaders of the 'Procés' and with the withdrawal of the arrest warrants for former president Carles Puigdemont, Toni Comín, and Lluís Puig. A sword of Damocles that they had been carrying for nine years. However, after almost a decade, the most difficult part remains for Carles Puigdemont: the true return.

A distinction must be made between the procedural moment to return and the political moment that the former president of the Generalitat will choose to do so, as they do not necessarily have to coincide. Regarding the procedural moment, it is not now. That is to say, it is not at the moment of the withdrawal of the arrest warrants, but when the criminal chamber of the Supreme Court definitively archives the case pursuing the former president. When will that be? There is no date, only legal steps that must be followed. Once there is no longer a prison order, Pablo Llarena must now issue the interlocutory order concluding the summary of the case and send it to the criminal chamber of the Supreme Court presided over by Andrés Martínez-Arrieta, and of which Manuel Marchena is also a part. It will be them who, after deliberating, will order the dismissal of the investigation due to the application of the amnesty. They will do so, in any case, after hearing the parties – the lawyers, the Public Prosecutor's Office, and Vox – to whom at least five working days must be given from the moment they receive the criminal investigation.

The political part

However, that is the procedural part of the story; the rest is politics. That is to say, Puigdemont has been in exile for nine years and must choose the political moment to return, which does not necessarily have to coincide with the calendar decided by the courts, nor does it have to be on the eve of an election campaign for the Spanish elections. In fact, former ANC leader Lluís Llach has been explicit in asking him: “The move of the president in exile returning now is a political trap that must be avoided.” “We will return, not at the service of our party, but at the service of our country,” said Puigdemont.

The former president is personally managing his return and is tight-lipped with his own people, but there are basically two scenarios: that he returns just before the November 29th election campaign or that he waits and returns after the elections. Returning before the vote would give a boost to Junts, which is in decline in the polls; whereas if he returned afterwards, he would isolate himself from the electoral noise that the former president of the ANC asked him to avoid and would allow him to reach beyond Junts.

There is a precedent that may provide clues: during the 2024 Parliament election campaign, many of his supporters pressured him to return before the elections as he had promised and provide the definitive push for his candidacy to win; ultimately, however, he decided to return on the day of Salvador Illa's investiture, August 8th, 2024, and leave everyone stunned, as the saying goes: instead of going to Parliament as he had said and ending up arrested, he vanished into the crowd and left again to preserve his freedom of movement.

What will he do when he returns?

Until now we have only addressed when and how Puigdemont will return, but the most relevant question still remains: what will he do when he can be in Catalonia? Regarding this, he is even more hermetic than about his return, since he has not communicated it even to his core inner circle. There are basically two scenarios and a derivative: that he retires from politics or that he decides to continue. And, in the case of continuing, whether or not he will take on the role of leader of the opposition in Parliament that his party needs to try to bounce back in the polls and confront both the PSC and Aliança Catalana. In short, today the return remains an unknown.