Catalan Alliance already surpasses Junts and approaches ERC, according to the CEO

BarcelonaThe PSC would win the parliamentary elections again if they were held today, despite maintaining a downward trend, which would take them from the 42 seats obtained in 2024 to a range of between 36 and 38. However, the most relevant image offered by the barometer of the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) is the consolidation of Aliança Catalana on the right flank of the parliamentary spectrum. Sílvia Orriols' party climbs to 23-25 deputies (it currently has 2) and clearly surpasses Junts per Catalunya, its main rival, which would lose half of its support to a range of between 16 and 18 deputies. ERC is the other party that is rising, consolidating the second position that other polls already predict for it, up to 24-26 deputies.

Aliança would practically get one in every three votes that Junts obtained (28%) in the last parliamentary elections, but it would also grow from another flank: it would convince one in every four Vox voters (23%), which is stagnating and would aim to slightly improve the results from two years ago. "This is new, a year ago it was not yet clear that they would compete so clearly for the same electorate," explained the director of the CEO, Joan Rodríguez Teruel, about the struggle between the two far-right formations. The Ripoll-based party would also receive 8% of the votes from the PP and ERC.

The voters leaving Junts for Aliança are, according to Teruel, those who most oppose the status quo. On the other hand, those who still maintain trust in the Junts members are the ones who least oppose, for example, the Generalitat and Moncloa. The big question that remains to be answered is whether an eventual return of Carles Puigdemont could alter current forecasts, taking into account that nothing that the Junts leadership has done so far has served to block the progress of Aliança Catalana. The CEO director predicts that

Furthermore, Sílvia Orriols is second in Catalans' preference for the presidency of the Generalitat (8%), only behind the current president, Salvador Illa (18%) and immediately ahead of Gabriel Rufián (7%). The leader of ERC, Oriol Junqueras, is next, tied with the leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont, each with 5% of citizen support.

In the last CEO poll, last November, Junts and Aliança tied for third place. Since then, the dynamics of the two parties have intensified: Carles Puigdemont's party continues to decline, as the latest ARA survey already indicated and, conversely, the far-right continues to rise.

Competing with Vox, the PP also drops to 12-13 seats and Comuns and the CUP would close the hemicycle with between 4 and 5 deputies. Joan Rodríguez Teruel points out that the blocs remain, but there is a change in the weight of the parties that make them up. That is, the bloc that today supports the Government, made up of PSC, ERC and Comuns, would maintain its weight around the 68 deputies they have today (the absolute majority), but with the republicans gaining space from their partners. "The drop in the PSC connects with the increase in ERC because the basic transfer from the socialists is towards the republicans," points out Teruel, who does not believe that the corruption cases affecting the PSOE will have much impact. According to the CEO's director, the socialists are playing their cards in the second half of the legislature.

It had been eight months since the Centre for Opinion Studies had conducted an electoral poll. One was expected for March, but problems in contracting the surveys have delayed the first barometer of 2026. Two more will be carried out in the last quarter of the year.

Support for independence

Support for independence rises six points compared to November last year and stands at 45%, still behind the 'no' vote, the preferred option for 51% of Catalans. Without a clear political proposal on the issue, the director of the CEO emphasizes that the voting lines between pro-independence and non-pro-independence parties have blurred. For example, as we pointed out earlier, between ERC and PSC or between Aliança and Vox.

In fact, more than 20% of ERC and Aliança Catalana voters do not consider themselves pro-independence, demonstrating their ability to penetrate individuals who do not share the state model proposed by these parties (in the case of Junts, the percentage is 5%, and for the CUP, it is 3%).

Leaders' approval ratings

Salvador Illa is the preferred politician for Catalans to be president of the Generalitat. 18% believe he is the one who best performs this role, although, as with the PSC, the percentage of support has been declining over time: in November 2024 his support exceeded 30%. Illa is also the best-rated political leader, with an average score of 4.8, tied with the president of ERC, Oriol Junqueras.

Orriols, on the other hand, falls in this ranking, largely due to the animosity she generates among left-wing voters. The leader of Aliança obtains an average score of 3.8, but she is the best-rated among her own voters (8). She is approved by the majority of Aliança voters (94%), as well as by Vox (70%), PP (65%), and Junts (55%). Carles Puigdemont is placed behind Orriols with a 3.5 and also loses valuation among his own voters, who rate him with a 6.4.

Of the Spanish political leaders, Catalans only place Pedro Sánchez close to passing (4.5), well above Alberto Núñez Feijóo (2.2) and Santiago Abascal (1.7). In this category, the CEO only asked about the candidates from PSOE, PP, and Vox, but has broadened the scope to other Catalan politicians with national projection and here the spokesperson for ERC in Congress, Gabriel Rufián, turns the ranking around, placing himself first - and the only politician to pass in the barometer - with a 5.6. As the latest survey by ARA also showed, Rufián is also the favorite among Esquerra voters, ahead of Junqueras.

Socialist victory in Congress

Spain has entered the last year of the legislature and, to try to reverse the polls, Pedro Sánchez aims to have a great result in Catalonia. The CEO barometer sees the PSOE as the clear winner of a congressional election, but far from the party's best results. In fact, it could even lose some of the 19 deputies it obtained in 2023. Next, Rufián's ERC would improve results without fully taking off: it could achieve between 10 and 11 seats from the 7 it has today in Madrid. Of course, the Republicans would distance themselves from Junts, which would fall from 7 to a range of between 4 and 5.

Knowing that Catalonia could be key to defining majorities, Feijóo has set himself the challenge of growing the PP from 6 to 12 Catalan deputies in the Spanish lower house, but the barometer keeps them stagnant and predicts more dependence on Vox, which would surpass them (6-7) starting from the 2 seats it obtained three years ago.