Trump, Venezuela and “energy dominance”
If observers were still in doubt about the motivations behind the US intervention in Venezuela, President Donald Trump dispelled much of that uncertainty himself during his press conference on Saturday. Whereas the seizure of Venezuela’s President Nicolás Maduro had previously been justified primarily on the basis of drug-trafficking-related charges, President Trump devoted a substantial part of his remarks to Venezuela’s oil wealth, the profits to be made from it, and the prospect that the United States would “run” the country for an unspecified period of time. In other words, while oil was probably not the sole reason for this intervention, it was undoubtedly a crucial one.
President Trump’s emphasis on Venezuela’s natural resources is not an isolated case. His second administration has placed strong emphasis on securing US access to strategic resources more broadly. On the one hand, this has involved efforts to reduce dependence on strategic rival China for a range of critical materials, including rare earths. Given their importance for high-tech applications, including military technologies, such materials are increasingly framed as essential to national security and economic competitiveness. In this context, the Trump administration has signed numerous critical minerals agreements with countries around the world, including the controversial deal with Ukraine in February 2025. Even more radical approaches have also been publicly floated: only two weeks ago, President Trump appointed a special envoy to Greenland who openly stated his wish to see the resource-rich island become part of the United States.
On the other hand, the US administration has also focused on ensuring a stable energy supply over the long term. This does not appear to be an imminent issue, as in recent years the United States has been a net exporter of oil and gas. Moreover, most analysts expect global oil markets in the coming years to be characterized more by oversupply than by scarcity and high prices. Yet, in order to maintain what Trump has repeatedly called “energy dominance” and to prepare for a time when US production begins to peter out, it is hardly surprising that the US administration is also setting its sights on Venezuela, the country with the world’s largest proven oil reserves.
Oil has been central to Venezuela’s politics and economy since the onset of large-scale exploitation in the 1920s. For decades, Venezuela was among Latin America’s wealthiest countries, albeit also one of its most unequal, and enjoyed relative political stability under a functioning democratic system. Although Hugo Chávez and later Nicolás Maduro profoundly transformed Venezuela’s political system from the late 1990s on, the central role of oil in sustaining regime stability remained constant. Over time, however, years of mismanagement, underinvestment, cronyism, and international sanctions have left Venezuela’s oil industry in a state of severe decay. In 2024, Venezuela’s production was only roughly one quarter of its 1998 level, the year before Chávez came to power, and around one percent of global production. Restoring production capacity even close to former levels is therefore expected to require massive external investment. In other words, while Venezuela has enormous potential, it is currently only a secondary player in the global oil market, with significant infrastructure issues.
This said, the recent events in Venezuela -with all their specific characteristics- can be understood as part of broader US policies aimed at securing access to strategic resources. Yet, as with similar initiatives elsewhere, the devil lies in the details. President Trump’s statements at Saturday’s press conference suggest an ambition to open Venezuela’s vast, state-controlled oil reserves to US oil companies, which he claimed would finance the reconstruction of the country’s energy infrastructure. At the same time, there remains little clarity about the concrete plans for Venezuela’s political future, including whether the seizure of Maduro is intended as a coercive move to push the existing leadership into a more US-friendly posture or as a step toward full-scale regime change. Because large-scale investments in oil infrastructure require a minimum degree of political stability and regulatory predictability, US oil companies are unlikely to commit billions of US Dollars without greater certainty. Ultimately, the success of the US strategy will hinge less on access to Venezuela’s oil wealth than on whether a credible and stable political framework can be established to unlock it.
