The Iran war exposes European inconsistencies
Operation Epic Fury has engulfed Europe. Iran's strategy of maximizing chaos in response to Israeli and US bombings has culminated in Hezbollah's drone attack on a British military base in Cyprus and Iranian missiles striking a French base in the United Arab Emirates. But above all, the war has trapped the European Union in its own contradictions. From the initial cacophony, which laid bare the divisions among the EU's major countries, to the tepid statements from Brussels. From the initial ambiguity of France, the United Kingdom, and Germany—the three countries that participated in the negotiations to curb Iran's nuclear program—to the unconditional alignment subsequently demonstrated by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
With the Middle East once again ablaze, the 2003 Iraq War—which divided the EU between the new and old Europe, as Donald Rumsfeld so aptly dubbed the phenomenon—now seems a distant memory. So, the heart of the Union, with Paris and Berlin at the forefront, argued that a military operation to overthrow a dictator must comply with international law and have the backing of the United Nations. On Sunday, however, Merz stated emphatically that legal debates will not determine Berlin's response to the escalating confrontation with Iran. And Pedro Sánchez was left alone, verbalizing that he can oppose a repressive regime like Iran's while simultaneously rejecting the unilateral nature of an attack that hasn't even been approved by the US Congress.
The EU is a victim of its own inconsistency. While in the war in Ukraine it defends the principle of territorial inviolability and condemns a unilateral invasion, in Iran—in the words of Chancellor Merz—"the classifications of international law will have little effect."
Between strategic disorientation and energy dependencies, the EU is beginning to take measures in response to a new crisis on its borders. Oil and gas production is threatened by drone attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure and bombings in Iran. Furthermore, the impact of the escalating conflict on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is fueling fears of future supply disruptions. Currently, the price of oil has risen by around 8%, and the European price of gas has already increased by around 20%. Europe is far less dependent on Gulf oil and LNG than China, India, Japan, and South Korea, but it is not isolated. Instability will further increase the pressure on economies like France and Germany, already heavily indebted due to the arms buildup of recent years.
Once again, the drums of war are setting the pace for the Union's geopolitical transformation. Emmanuel Macron announced on Monday that France will increase its arsenal of nuclear warheads (currently estimated at around 300) and promised greater strategic coordination with European partners. In a speech from the Île Longue naval base, home to France's four nuclear submarines, Macron spoke of future joint exercises, the deployment of strategic forces across Europe, and the preparation of a framework for "advanced deterrence" to which other countries such as Germany, Poland, Belgium, and Belgium could be added. Furthermore, the attacks on Cyprus have also prompted the EU to consider opening discussions in the coming days on the mutual defense clause, included in Article 42 of the Treaty on European Union, which obliges member states to assist any partner under attack. Despite all these developments, Europe remains merely an absent observer in the acceleration that is redrawing the map of regional balances on its southern border.
Donald Trump already took it upon himself to remove Europeans from the equation regarding Iran's future during his first term, when he scrapped the nuclear agreement negotiated by his predecessor, Barack Obama, and the EU with the authorities in Tehran. Since then, the EU has effectively erased itself from any regional influence, both in the Middle East conflict and in the future of Syria. Or, now, in Iran. The EU is an absentee power and, at the same time, directly dependent on the geopolitical risks of a confrontation with no end in sight.
