1. The war is not over yet. We are waiting to see if the US will consolidate its power in the Strait of Hormuz, to gain an advantage over China in this strategic region, and if they will clear the way to build the Persian Gulf - Mediterranean oil pipeline, to isolate Russia. These two elements would imply moving from the containment phase of Iran to its complete paralysis. We are also still waiting to see if Israel will destroy what remains of the Iranian infrastructure and if it will be able to overthrow the Shia totalitarian theocracy.
2. The military aggression by the US and Israel began two months after the large social protests against the regime demanding bread and freedom. The protests arose because 85% of a population of 92 million, in a country with immense resources, was on the brink of poverty, under a religious aristocracy of millionaires.
3. Thousands of Iranians have been buried under the rubble. The Minab school and its girls will be remembered like Trump's My Lai. Four million people have fled their homes, and at least two million have lost their jobs.
4. The regime has intensified political terror: tens of thousands of Iranians have been arrested. As has been reported, Bita Hemmati and her husband, Mohammadreza Majidi-Asl, and hundreds of other Iranians, are on the verge of the gallows.
5. The Mossad's network of infiltrators has carried out a hundred selective assassinations among the regime's generals. The survivors have staged an undeclared coup: in addition to removing the clerical caste from power, they have marginalized civil authorities, such as President Masoud Pezeshkian, who insists on dialogue with the US to resolve the conflict. Who really rules Iran? "The head of the anti-Zionist section of the security services was a Mossad agent," confessed former president Mahmud Ahmadinejad in 2024, and he also revealed that the brother-in-law of the supreme leader Ali Khamenei and vice-president of the Islamic radio and television, Hassan Khojasteh, was supposed to travel to Israel from Turkey in 2014 and spent two weeks in India with expenses paid by an Israeli businessman.
6. Due to its binary formation (win-lose; friend-enemy), the military does not understand the art of diplomacy (win-win; taking one step back to take two steps forward). This is why Iran has lost negotiations with Washington and has earned the enmity of the sheikhs of the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, who have received 70% of the missiles fired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps for allowing the US to use their territories to attack Iran. If these countries have not responded to these aggressions until today, it has been due to the fear that Tehran will order the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to be closed to the Yemeni Houthis, which would further sink their economies. Will they allow Trump to leave the region, leaving them alone with the remnants of the Shiite totalitarian theocracy?
7. With Iranian ports blocked by the US Navy, Iran expects triple-digit inflation, which today stands at 71%. Food today accounts for 85% of the minimum wage of a worker with two children. On the other hand, the large steel and petrochemical complexes that employed, directly or indirectly, about 35,000 people have been destroyed. Hundreds of thousands more people have been laid off to reduce costs or due to a lack of raw materials. The damage of the war to the Iranian economy amounts to 270 billion dollars, and its economy could contract by 10%.
8. The internet shutdown ordered by the Shiite totalitarian theocracy for 50 days – the longest in history – is another attack on the right to free access to information and communication, and has led to the bankruptcy of Iran's digital commerce. According to Netblocks, daily losses are around 80 million dollars, affecting the livelihoods of 10 million Iranians. From points seven and eight, it can be deduced that another popular insurrection is brewing.
9. The US president has not only achieved his main objective – destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities by bombing the facilities at Natanz, Arak, Fordow, and Bushehr, on which the regime had wasted billions of euros – but, by responding to the Islamic regime's mistake of closing the Strait of Hormuz – an abbreviation of the name Ahura Mazda, the deity of wisdom in Zoroastrian philosophy – he has taken control of this strait, which, in a supposed slip-up, he renamed as "Trump Strait".
10. Despite the Iranian sky being under the absolute control of the aggressors, and having lost their air defense systems, their navy, a large part of their ballistic missiles and drones, and hundreds of command and control centers, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps believes that the strategy of "controlled ambiguity" they are using in negotiations with the US will serve them to crush the new round of protests. And to remain in power for 47 more years.
