Save Sánchez to save Catalonia?

"More than ever, I don't know who to vote for." It is a common phrase these days. The distance between desire –one's own ideas and feelings– and reality –what the parties offer–, normal when it comes to going to the polls, has widened. The temptation to abstain is growing. But if one does not go, then one cannot complain about the result, right? The "let them deal with it" attitude doesn't work because, in the end, they also end up acting –governing– for you. So, what then? A useful vote?

Right now, in Spain, either Feijóo governs with the support of the far-right or Sánchez governs with the support of a plural majority. There are no other possibilities. Can Spanish politics be blocked as some fantasize? Let's imagine an improbable but mathematically possible scenario. Let's imagine that despite Ábalos, Zapatero, Puente and tutti quanti, Pedro Sánchez, the survivor, makes a comeback and in the end, PP-Vox are left one seat short of an absolute majority. Let's imagine that the party Alhora, also breaking what the polls say, obtains a seat for Barcelona: it needs about 100,000 votes. This hypothetical deputy could serve to deny the majority to the right and at the same time deny the majority to Sánchez. What would happen? It would lead the system to a second electoral call, a thing, however, which in practice would mean that the PSOE would continue governing in an interim capacity. The result, therefore, would be an extension for Sánchez and his government. It would give him room for maneuver to prepare for the next elections. Saved.

Apart from being an idea of dubious efficacy, the "the worse, the better" would not actually be fulfilled. In this improbable and hypothetical case, the parliamentary blockage would not lead to ungovernability. Despite being a weak executive, due to its interim status, it would be unlikely that improvements in funding, transfers, investments, infrastructure, language, etc., could be wrested from it from Catalonia. In reality, when there is bad blood in Spain, Catalonia always loses out (or doesn't win). It is usually reserved the role of scapegoat. We have seen this historically on numerous occasions, from the Civil War to the watering down of the Transition after the coup d'état of February 23, 1981.

In the last elections, the CUP was left without a seat: in Barcelona it added 66,000 votes. In the same constituency, Junts obtained 256,000 votes (3 seats), and ERC, 326,000 (4 seats). It is plausible to think that Alhora, despite its ideology leaning towards the center-right, will receive some from the CUP, a few more from a Junts that polls place on the decline, and perhaps some from the ERC, even though the republicans are on the rise. Even so, as happened with the CUP in 2023, it is most likely that effective representation will only remain with the other sovereignist forces, which three years ago parliamentary arithmetic made decisive. Another question is to what extent they have known how to or been able to take advantage of that favorable situation.

We have just seen how in the USA a majority went to vote more against Trump than in favor of anyone, annoyed by his fake promises: he was not supposed to get involved in wars and was supposed to lower the cost of living. It is the typical protest vote. The other typical vote is that of fear to avoid a greater evil: this time it does not seem to be working for Sánchez. His own mistakes, the railway accident, and the media and judicial steamroller are paving the way for PP-Vox. It is not clear that the ideological echo of Lula's success and Trump's failure will give him enough momentum.

If Feijóo-Abascal win, Catalonia will suffer. If we already have the country in turmoil, with basic services and rights in bankruptcy (housing, mobility, education, healthcare), what will come will be worse. The "the worse, the better" will be "the worse, the worse". No doubt. The unrest will become chronic. Poverty will grow: there will be more downward slides for the middle class. More disillusioned young people. More competition for crumbs. More difficulties for the Catalan language.

Save Sánchez to save Catalonia? It is an obvious and inevitable question. Even, as we have seen, in a super-tight situation, an Alhora deputy would eventually serve, against his will, to save him. Pragmatic vote? How far?