Attack first and without warning: the new global order

The start of Operation Rising Lion, as Israel calls the war with Iran, is already a success for Benjamin Netanyahu's government. It has pushed the initially reluctant Trump administration to become embroiled in a new military adventure in the Middle East, as even Secretary of State Marco Rubio has admitted. The Gulf monarchies have turned against Iran, which, with its drones, has shattered the image of success and luxury of cities like Dubai. And, incidentally, the major European powers have been drawn into the aggressor camp, without having been able to influence the decision to attack. Once again, courageous stances in defense of international law are sorely lacking in Europe, and once again, the Spanish government finds itself in the minority when it defends the values ​​and rules that the European Union has always proclaimed as its own.

The stated objectives of the US Secretary of War are Iran's military capabilities and—unlike Trump's rhetoric—do not include regime change, since it is not easy for an air campaign to overthrow the ayatollahs' power. Despite economic strangulation and public pressure, the government maintains control of both major urban centers and virtually the entire country. Just a few weeks ago, the armed forces, particularly the Revolutionary Guard and its feared militia, the Basij, demonstrated unwavering loyalty when ordered to harshly repress their own people.

Everything indicates that Tehran had already prepared a response to this attack by its two declared enemies, a response that isolates it and has earned it renewed enmities. Given the limited impact of its direct attacks on Israel during the so-called Twelve-Day War of June 2025, Iran has opted to also attack its Arab neighbors in the Persian Gulf, hosts to the United States armed forces. Every drone that strikes the territory of Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, or Saudi Arabia strikes at the heart of their economies and threatens to set back decades their strategies to position themselves, based on petrodollars, as islands of stability and international connectivity.

The European powers, already hostile toward Iran, are being drawn into a war they did not want and over which they have had little say. Seeing bombs fall on friendly and client emirates, the initially reluctant British Labour government is opening the door to participating in "defensive actions." France, with a permanent military presence in the United Arab Emirates and security agreements with other states like Qatar, will not stand up to the US as it did in 2003 with Iraq. Nor will Germany, entrenched in the unwavering pro-Israel stance of its political elites, be the one to put the brakes on.

The Spanish government, in contrast, does not authorize the use of military bases for the attacks and states the obvious: the operation constitutes a violent escalation and contributes to a hostile international order. The reactions from Israel and Trump supporters on both sides of the Atlantic, accusing the Sánchez government of complicity with Iran, as well as Trump's own threat to cut off all trade with Spain, were predictable. The Spanish government's condemnations of the Iranian attacks on Gulf countries will not convince them. It is important that Madrid stands firm and that Spanish diplomacy seeks allies to prevent the European Union from effectively supporting an illegal and dangerous aggression. As happened with the recognition of Palestine, it is entirely possible that, in time, the exception will become the rule.

"This is not Iraq. It will not be endless," declared an optimistic Pete Hegseth, the US Secretary of War, on Monday. The first premise is guaranteed: Iran is more than twice the size of Iraq and has far greater strategic value. But whether the war that is beginning will be endless remains to be seen. The Islamic Republic can hold out, and failing that, the regional precedents of regime falls are not encouraging: one need only recall the tribulations of Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Libya, or Syria. There remains the possibility of a negotiated solution with an extremely weakened regime, primarily concerned with its survival: with Venezuela, Trump has already demonstrated considerable pragmatism in tolerating continuity and sacrificing the people's democratic aspirations as long as he can extract clear benefits.

The United States and Israel have launched (without warning, despite their allies, and against international law) a new phase in the realignment of the Greater Middle East, initiating a war of unpredictable dimensions and consequences amidst the arc of conflicts stretching from Libya to southern Ukraine. A risky gamble that shakes not only the region but also the world order, and a further step toward an international system where attacking first, without warning or legitimacy, is a winning strategy. It is up to the governments of Europe to decide if this is the message they want to send to the world.