The death toll from the Myanmar earthquake has risen to 2,700, a catastrophe that puts the military dictatorship to the test.

BarcelonaAlmost twenty-four hours later of the 7.7 magnitude earthquake that shook central Myanmar, There were only 144 confirmed victims. They were from a hospital that had collapsed. It wasn't until the following day that the military junta made the first toll public: 1,644 dead, 2,389 injured and 30 missing. This Tuesday, after two days without updated data, the death toll rose to 2,719 dead, 4,521 wounded, and 400 missing, according to Chinese television station CCTV, which cited sources from the military government. These silences are not accidental: they are the hallmark of the systematic opacity of the Burmese regime, which controls information with an iron fist. But they also reflect the weakness of the military junta, which, amid growing chaos, faces a major challenge: demonstrating that it is in control of the country.

Since the Tatmadaw (the Burmese military) took power through the coup d'état on February 1, 2021, its military junta has ruled with methods of terror, and has confronted the various armed groups that emerged in reaction. After the protests against the coup, which left 4,000 dead and 25,000 detainees, they go the so-called People's Defense Forces (PDF in English) emerged, formed mostly by the civilian population. Some ethnic groups (more than 130 coexist in Myanmar) who had been fighting for their independence for years also joined the fight against the army. Most of the opposition militias answer to the command of the Government of National Unity (GNU), the exiled opposition that brings together some members of the former democratic government, led by de facto by the Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, whose party won the 2021 elections and who was arrested after the coup d'état.

The conflict has caused a major humanitarian crisis. –with the internal displacement of at least 3.5 million Burmese– aggravated by hyperinflation and the economic sanctions that several countries have imposed on the regime. Those who have suffered the most are the Rohingyes, a Muslim ethnic minority who has suffered the attacks and persecution of both sides.

Intensification of fighting

"Since October 2023, clashes between the military and opposition insurgent factions have intensified and spread across Myanmar," Dídac Cubeiro, associate professor at the Autonomous University of Barcelona (UAB), told ARA. He added that the military has been carrying out recruitment campaigns.

Opposition factions have dealt severe blows to the military government, which has lost large swathes of territory, including on the borders with China and Bangladesh. In fact, according to a recent BBC study, the Tatmadaw only effectively controls 21% of the country. Instead, it has been accused of repeatedly bombing the civilian population.

Possibility of a truce?

This Sunday, the UNG pledged to halt fighting for at least two weeks to facilitate access for humanitarian aid to the earthquake-affected areas. Could this be the beginning of a lasting peace? It seems not. Despite the gravity of the situation, the military junta has not halted military operations and has continued airstrikes in the Sagaing region and Karen State. "This demonstrates the Tatmadaw's unwillingness to adopt a complete truce, which could hinder equitable access to humanitarian aid," Cubeiro emphasizes.

On the other hand, the regime hasn't provided much visible support to the earthquake-hit areas. As Richard Horsey, Crisis Group's senior Myanmar advisor, told Reuters: "Local fire brigades, ambulance crews, and community organizations have been mobilized, but the military, which would normally be mobilized to support in such a crisis, is nowhere to be seen."

Therefore, Cubeiro believes that the management of the earthquake could mark a turning point. The regime's "insufficient response" could gain popular support for the resistance, especially in devastated areas like Sagaing. Or, the military junta could use the disaster as "an excuse to intensify control over the affected regions, restrict humanitarian aid, and consolidate its power through control of resources."

The role of China

Many countries have pledged to send humanitarian aid to Myanmar to try to alleviate the effects of the unprecedented devastation of the earthquake. But the largest fund has been allocated by Beijing, a long-standing ally of Nay Pyi Taw, which pledged this Monday a 13.9 million injection into an emergency fund, but at the same time continues to maintain strategic support for the military regime to protect its investments in key infrastructure such as the Kyauk Phyu port. This gesture, according to Cubeiro, should be seen within the context of the of Chinese regional dominance and its desire to ensure stability in the region"China is once again trying to position itself alongside the authoritarian Burmese regime to prevent foreign forces from taking advantage of the chaos to destabilize the region," the analyst says.