India and Pakistan, two nuclear powers, on the brink of war

A new episode of violence in the disputed region of Kashmir has once again set off alarm bells in South Asia.. The attack on a group of Hindu pilgrims, which left 26 dead, has further intensified the already tense relationship between India and Pakistan, two neighbors who share a history, borders, and nuclear arsenals ready to be activated. The concern extends beyond the region.

Although the clashes in Kashmir are cyclical, a reflection of a history fraught with mistrust since the partition of 1947, the current context seems different. Not only because of the magnitude of the attack, but due to the movements recorded on both sides of the border, where armies are adjusting positions and official speeches are taking on a martial tone. All of this has raised fears of a military escalation.

According to data from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, India has 1.4 million active personnel in its armed forces. Of these, more than 1.2 million belong to the army, which represents a significantly greater ground capacity than its neighboring country. Pakistan, by comparison, has around 700,000 soldiers, of which 560,000 are in the army. This difference is not insignificant when considering the deployment potential in the event of a prolonged conflict.

The relationship is repeated in the field of artillery, with 9,743 pieces in Indian hands compared to 4,619 on the Pakistani side. If the scenario moves to the air, India's superiority remains evident. Its fleet totals 730 combat aircraft, compared to Pakistan's 452.

However, the greatest point of concern remains the nuclear balance. India has 172 nuclear warheads, and Pakistan follows closely behind with 170. Both countries have developed sophisticated variable-range missiles and delivery systems capable of striking enemy urban centers and military targets in a matter of minutes. This nuclear parity creates an uneasy equilibrium in which the threat of mutual destruction acts as a deterrent, but also turns any mistake or miscalculation into a potential catastrophe.

India has officially adopted a "no first use" policy for its nuclear weapons, but maintains sufficient strategic ambiguity to deter its adversaries. Pakistan, in contrast, refuses to make such a commitment. Its military doctrine explicitly contemplates the use of nuclear weapons in response to overwhelming conventional aggression, making any escalation a high-risk scenario.

A delicate moment

The attack on Kashmir comes at a delicate time. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made national security one of the government's flagships. With elections on the horizon, internal pressures are pushing the government to show determination. Already in 2019, following an attack in Pulwama, Modi ordered airstrikes against Pakistani territory, sparking a brief but intense confrontation between the two air forces. Today, many fear a similar situation could happen again, with an even narrower window to contain hostilities.

Pakistan, mired in an economic crisis and volatile domestic politics, also faces pressure to show strength. In this context, any sign of weakness vis-à-vis India can translate into considerable internal costs. The Pakistani military, a key player in the country's political life, rarely gives in to provocations without responding, and prolonged silence can be interpreted as weakness, both within and outside its borders.

Major powers, including China, which maintains close ties with Pakistan, and the United States, which has strengthened its relations with India, are watching with growing concern. The international community recalls that, on multiple occasions, urgent diplomatic intervention was necessary to prevent the conflict from crossing all red lines.

Although open war was narrowly avoided in 2019, today, with new civilian casualties at the epicenter of the conflict and an even more polarized regional context, the situation is extremely volatile.

Kashmir is not only a disputed territory, but a political, religious, and strategic symbol for both nations. Every attack, reprisal, or military movement carries a historical burden that goes beyond the event itself.

Now, with two nuclear powers facing each other and the wounds of Kashmir once again exposed, the risk of a fatal failure has never been higher. War hasn't broken out yet, but the danger of escalation is more real than ever.