Without Orbán, will Slovakia become the EU's new stumbling block?

BarcelonaThis Saturday, the same day that Europe Day will be celebrated in many European cities, there will be a Community Prime Minister who will be neither in Brussels nor in the capital of his country. Instead of commemorating the historic Schumann Declaration, which laid the foundations for the European Union, the Prime Minister of Slovakia, Robert Fico, will be in Moscow to commemorate the victory of the Soviet army over Nazi Germany in World War II. He will be the only EU leader to travel to Russia during Vladimir Putin's major annual military display anniversary.

The relief in Brussels when Viktor Orbán's defeat in the Hungarian elections was confirmed was more than evident. It meant the farewell of the Kremlin's main ally in Europe, who had been acting as a Trojan horse within the Community institutions for years. But soon some voices pointed to the risk that Fico could take his place and become the new stumbling block in the EU. The Slovak leader has been, since winning the elections in 2023, a loyal partner of Orbán in the strategy of vetoes, especially regarding sanctions against Russia and aid to Ukraine.

During the discussion about the €90 billion macro-loan to Kyiv, Fico aligned himself with Orbán and refused to approve it to force the EU and Ukraine to repair the Druzhba oil pipeline, which connects Russia with Hungary. Two weeks ago, the Slovak leader relented after Orbán also did – already as acting Prime Minister – and the EU was able to approve the economic package, even though Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic all made it a condition to be excluded from any economic contribution.

Fico shares with Orbán a populist, nationalist, and pro-Russian rhetoric. Also challenges to the control mechanisms of the European Union. And the persecution of civil society and the cuts to the rule of law. Since returning to power in 2023 for a fourth term, Fico's government has taken measures to dismantle anti-corruption institutions and has increased pressure on NGOs. Last week, the European Parliament asked the European Commission to freeze EU funds for Slovakia, as it did with Hungary in 2022. According to the Eurochamber, the legal changes promoted by the Slovak government "cause alarm for their possible negative consequences for media freedom and civil society, and for the country's ability to fight corruption and the possible misuse of EU funds".

However, several experts agree that he will hardly take on the role that Orbán has had in Brussels so far. "Slovakia is smaller, less important, and Fico has never had any ambition to influence the foreign and domestic policies of other countries like Orbán did," Michal Vasecka, a professor at the Bratislava Policy Institute, tells ARA. He adds that the prime minister "is scared to death that the European Commission might freeze EU funds, which would be destructive for him internally." The expert believes that Fico will continue to systematically criticize the EU for green policies, for example, but is convinced that he will not have a constant blocking strategy.

"A new iron curtain"

Slovakia, like Hungary, continues to be heavily dependent on Russian oil. Last May, Fico criticized the EU's proposal to stop energy imports from Russia and considered that this measure is equivalent to raising "a new iron curtain" with serious economic consequences for the entire bloc. And he said that the absence of direct flights to Russia is proof of this emerging barrier. "When I flew to Moscow in December, I had to go through Turkey and returned via Košice. That's the iron curtain in action," he said.

Since he has been prime minister, Fico has gone every year to the Victory Day celebration in Moscow. The three Baltic republics have already made it clear that they will not allow the Slovak prime minister's plane to cross their airspace to reach Moscow, while Poland is considering it. "The member states of the European Union do not allow the prime minister of another member state of the European Union to fly to these territories," criticized Fico, who added: "I will surely find another route, as I did last year when Estonia torpedoed us".

Fico will travel to Russia a few days after meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky during the European Political Community summit in Yerevan. "We are neighbours, we have to take care of good relations," said the Slovak leader in an attempt to smooth over tensions with Ukraine, adding that they had agreed to hold a meeting at the end of June, in Bratislava or Kyiv.

Slovak political scientist Juraj Marusiak believes that Fico "is trying to distance himself from his own past in some way." He cites this meeting with the Ukrainian president and that he has also requested to meet with European leaders such as the German chancellor. He also points out that he will probably be "more prudent" because there will be elections in Slovakia next year "and he doesn't want to be completely isolated." In this regard, he indicates that the winner of the elections in Bulgaria, the also pro-Russian Rumen Radev, "the also pro-Russian Rumen Radev, "is not as attractive a partner" as Orbán was.

This week, Fico has clarified that he will be in Moscow on May 9 but will limit his visit to a commemorative event and a meeting with Putin, and will not attend the military parade, as the Kremlin had reported. "Nevertheless, it is evident that this trip is a symbolic manifestation of how Fico views relations with Russia," Marusiak emphasizes. Curiously – and probably also as a symbolic gesture, in this sense as a nod to Brussels – Orbán's successor at the head of Hungary, Péter Magyar, will take office on the same day, May 9.