The end of the Orbán era: Péter Magyar's opposition sweeps Hungary

Special correspondent to BudapestThe system that Viktor Orbán has tailored for himself over the last decade and a half has not been able to overcome the euphoria and hope for change generated by Péter Magyar. Tisza, the party that has managed to unite all opposition to the Fidesz government, has swept the legislative elections this Sunday. With almost all votes counted, the results project a Parliament with an absolute majority for Tisza, which would win 138 seats, meaning it would control two-thirds of the lower house. Fidesz would take 54 and the far-right party Our Homeland Movement, seven. In terms of vote percentage, Magyar secures 53% of the support, and Orbán 37%. An unmitigated and unprecedented defeat for Orbán, who has accepted the loss and congratulated his rival.

"The election result is painful, but clear; I have congratulated the winning party," said the prime minister from the Fidesz election headquarters. “We do not know what these results will mean for the destiny of our nation, time will tell, but we will serve our country even from the opposition –he assured. Everyone must know one thing, in this room and throughout the country: we will never, never, never surrender”. 

These elections mark the end of the Orbán era, who has governed Hungary with absolute majorities for the last sixteen years, during which he has eroded the country's democracy and turned it into a kind of laboratory for the global ultraconservative movement. Therefore, these results are not only a devastating blow to Orbán, but they also resonate beyond Hungary's borders. Long faces were also seen in Washington and Moscow. The defeat of the Hungarian prime minister leaves Vladimir Putin without his key ally within the European Union. 

From Brussels, however, there have already been celebrations with euphoria. “The heart of Europe beats stronger tonight in Hungary,” wrote the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

Record turnout

The clearest sign that Hungarians have taken the elections very seriously is the massive mobilization. Participation has approached 80%, the highest since 1990 and 10 points above that of 2002, which held the record until now.

All independent polls published during the campaign gave Tisza a wide lead, but supporters and analysts remained cautious. In these sixteen years, Orbán has created a great machinery that worked in his favor, with public media captured by the ruling party and all institutions filled with loyalists. All this had been enough for him in the last four electoral appointments, partly due to the ineffectiveness of the opposition, but nothing has been able to stop Tisza's momentum.

in rural areas there are many pro-Fidesz peopleFear vs. hope for change

Orbán had framed these elections as a referendum between “war or peace”. He reiterated that Magyar, whom he characterizes as a \u201ppet” of “Brussels bureaucrats”, would drag Hungary into war against Russia, while a government of continuity would guarantee a peaceful future for the country.

For his part, the opposition leader has promised to return Hungary to the democratic path and eliminate the corrupt system that the prime minister has implemented. To this end, the key was to achieve representation equivalent to two-thirds of Parliament, which Fidesz has had since 2010. This allowed Orbán, already during his first term, to change the Constitution without having to consult any other party and begin to eliminate the main mechanisms of government control.

The Hungarian Parliament has 199 seats, since the amendment to the electoral law promoted by Fidesz in 2011 – before, it had 386 –. Voters have voted with two ballots: one from a national list, from which 93 deputies are elected proportionally, and another in which local representatives are elected, from which the 106 seats are drawn: the winner by simple majority takes the seat. The reform strengthened single-member districts, which favors parties with more support in less populated areas, as is the case with Fidesz. In contrast, there is a large concentration of opposition voters in densely populated urban districts, especially in Budapest, which in recent years has harmed the rest of the parties. This electoral engineering has not been enough this time either.

"Everyone wants change"

In the early afternoon, on the esplanade in front of the majestic Hungarian Parliament, groups of tourists mingled with about fifteen people setting up a structure of lights and speakers. "Nobody is organizing it, we are a private group of people. It's a techno festival, it's not political at all," explained one of the three men setting up portable toilets a few meters away. They were right in front of the Ministry of Construction and Transport, which was barricaded with metal fences and police officers. I ask them if they have voted and what their expectations are. They don't elaborate on the answer, which is quite concise: "Everyone wants change.

At the polling stations, the messages were along the same lines. But one of the few who agreed to answer (without giving his name) pointed to the following reason: "Here, in Budapest, people are more liberal, but in rural areas there are many pro-Fidesz people". "I am a person who belongs to the LGTBI community and I would really like to see Orbán out of government," he stated. One of the targets of Viktor Orbán's government's ultra-conservative crusade has been this community. "Everyone around me is very hopeful that Tisza will win, but I have my doubts," he admitted.

A girl who had just voted at the same polling station was more optimistic, but she wasn't entirely convinced either: "I have high hopes, but I also have a strange mix of feelings. I'm scared. If Tisza doesn't win, it will be a disaster." And she pointed to a possibility that had been hovering in the country in recent days: "If the opposition doesn't win, maybe people will revolt and take to the streets to protest." People have taken to the streets. But not to protest, but to celebrate change. Many have a night of little sleep ahead of them.