War on 'standby' in the Gulf: "You see that boat? It's a secret mission from the Americans"
While awaiting the outcome of negotiations, Arab monarchies rethink their model battered by Iranian missiles
Special envoy to Fujairah (United Arab Emirates)The war is on standby, but from the pool you can see the war deployed, prepared.
The pool belongs to a refined five-star hotel now undergoing forced sales. Missiles, Donald Trump, and the whims of geopolitics have left the grand Al Bahar resort in a delicate position: on the very frontline of Fujayrah, one of the United Arab Emirates cities most battered by Ayatollah's fire. “Enjoy a perfect combination of luxury and serenity.” Now they have added another slogan, less poetic: “Great offer. 25% off all rooms.”From the pool, a man with inside information helps me interpret the landscape. On the horizon, dozens of vessels can be seen anchoring in the waters of the Gulf of Oman. On the other side, there is Iran. Also on the other side, a little further east, Pakistan,
A military helicopter flies over the area. The crows – the UAE's symbol is the falcon, but crows are abundant – caw to answer the mechanical roar. The waiters ignore the war and ask me my nationality. In peacetime, this hotel is full of Russians with passports mutilated by another war, the one in Ukraine.—Is the helicopter Iranian?—No, it's ours, from the Emirates. It scans the sea and the sky to monitor enemy movements.
—But there's a truce now, isn't there?
—Yes, but we have to be prepared… they attacked us anyway hours after the agreement was confirmed.
—And all these vessels?
—Many are tankers. Some are coming to our port.
Look, do you see that boat? It's a secret American mission. They are soldiers from the USA.
The vessel appears civilian, but it's a military radar ship. It detects threats and sends information to take them down. The man requests anonymity. The man has been working these days with the American marines, part of the special deployment that the Pentagon has sent to the Middle East.
Trump has decided to keep troops despite the temporary ceasefire. Warships like these are scattered throughout the region. “We are reloading our ships with the best ammunition in case talks fail and the war continues,” Trump said on Friday. But if the talks work and the war ends, they may travel to other seas. “They are now preparing and resting, awaiting their next conquest.” This last sentence is also from Trump. War hyperactivity. These are again times of shock for Washington's soldiers.
The temporary truce agreed by the United States and Iran on Tuesday night was born trembling, but it survives. Despite cross threats, fingers on the trigger, the semi-paralysis of Hormuz, and Netanyahu's siege of Lebanon, Americans and Iranians have come face to face in Islamabad. The meeting began on Saturday with optimism and ended on Sunday with pessimism: the men from the White House withdrew from negotiations due to a lack of agreement.
A father of a family sitting on an oyster-shaped bench makes a more concrete, more practical reading: “Take advantage of it. There is peace again today, we don't know about tomorrow.” His children are playing ball on the Fujairah promenade. We also don't know what people on the other side of the sea are saying. A thousand days have passed since the ayatollahs' regime disconnected Iranians from the world with a massive, fierce internet shutdown. It is estimated that American and Israeli bombs have killed at least 3,000 people in Iran.—What do you think of the Iranians?
—I've lived here for years, but I'm from Syria. What am I supposed to think? No matter how much you think, the world is sometimes too complicated to understand.
—What don't you understand?
—This war. Why have they attacked us? Why did Trump attack Iran?
—Will the ceasefire hold?
—What I think has no importance or effect.
There are ten days left to find a definitive solution to the war. What happens until the deadline is an unknown path even for the Pentagon.
Fight until you retreat
The city of Fuyaira is strategic and the war has made it appreciate.
For Abu Dhabi, it is the only emirate located on the coast of the Gulf of Oman and not the Persian. Geopolitical translation: it allows it a direct exit to the Indian Ocean without having to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. From its port, one of the most important in the Gulf, the government of the Emirates can export oil and gas avoiding the sensitive Hormuz, now under Tehran's dominion. In recent weeks, the ayatollahs have strategically struck these facilities with rage.
On the road to the port, the car's GPS gets disoriented. On either side of the highway, gas and oil depots take over the landscape. Lapses in navigation applications are common in war zones. Armies use jamming systems to confuse enemy drones and missiles.
The blue cursor on the map gets lost again and the application virtually places me at the door of a beastly business: Fujariah Bull Fighting. I click. It's a tourist farm where bullfights are exhibited. The fight is traditional: the two animals face each other and clash heads and horns, one trying to make the other retreat. As in wars, the one who makes the opponent retreat the most wins. Perhaps the GPS was not wrong: bullfighting makes a fortune in international politics today. Seventy-two hours earlier, Iranian drones had impacted depots in this port area. The attack came with the truce already begun. The scene now at the port entrance is one of normality: trucks entering and leaving, workers entering and leaving, stray dogs dodging buses carrying more workers. All the workers are immigrants: coming mainly from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Ethiopia. They earn about 500 euros a month.
“There have been attacks here every day. The last day they attacked three times behind these mountains”. Says the gas station worker. He comes from Nepal.
—And you kept working the same?
— We had to come.
—And you weren't scared?
—Of course. But we had to come. Otherwise, they could fire us.
—Do you have videos of the bombings?
—No. And if there are more attacks, don't do it. They could arrest you, sir.
The Emirati monarchy does not want videos, but it does want flags. These days it has asked the population to display the country's colors. The surprising effectiveness of the anti-aircraft defense system – with an interception rate that has surpassed the famous Israeli Iron Dome – is a cause for global pride.
The Emirati monarchy has also sent a global message: “With the confidence of one who has overcome a treacherous aggression, we will precisely read about our regional and international relations and determine who can be trusted”.
Tehran Restaurant
Irreversible changes of mentality are occurring in the Gulf. The Middle East, like the world, is undergoing remodeling. Trump is the accelerator.“Iranian missiles have hit the three fundamental pillars on which the region’s political and economic model was based: energy, logistics, and global connectivity”, states Iranian analyst Mehran Haghirian, an expert on the Persian Gulf and director of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation. The expert makes a three-act diagnosis.
The first: “The security model has become obsolete. For years, the region relied on a combination of deterrence, protection from the US, and managed tension with Iran. All of this has gone up in smoke.” The second: “There will be a crisis of reliability with the US. But the dependence is too great, and Washington is an irreplaceable ally. We will have to explore other alliances and invest in resilience measures.” The third: “The model of coexistence by necessity with Iran has exploded. We will have to wait to see the impact of the detonation, because, in the end, they will always be the neighbors on the other side of the sea.”
I ask Mehran if restaurants are also geopolitical thermometers. The question disconcerts him, but he recommends an Iranian one in Dubai.
Exquisite Persian cuisine abounds in the futuristic city, which also did not expect to see Iranian drones flying over the Burj Khalifa. In the five difficult weeks of war, the Emirates have restricted the entry of Iranians into the country, frozen assets in companies linked to Tehran, and revoked licenses from Persian schools.
But on Friday, in the capital of luxury, one could still dine in restaurants from the other side of the sea.
El Berenjak was quite empty, but it didn't seem like any political reaction: tourists are still afraid to return to the city, and the city breathes sadly. The waiter brought the menu. The slogan he had printed had also not foreseen the Third Gulf War:
“We are taking you to the streets of Tehran”.