Anna Ayuso: "Trump's threat to withdraw the bailout for Argentina if he lost Milei has worked."

BarcelonaThe results of the legislative elections this Sunday in Argentina They consolidate the presence of President Javier Milei's party (La Libertad Avanza) in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, where Milei has been in the minority for almost two years. We analyze these results with Anna Ayuso, a senior researcher at CIDOB specializing in Latin America.

Were you surprised by the overwhelming victory of Javier Milei's party in this Sunday's legislative elections?

— Of course. The polls didn't predict a landslide, but they did predict a tie. This result was unthinkable, especially in the province of Buenos Aires, where just a month and a half ago Peronism won by 13 pointsBut it's also surprising that he won not only in this province, but in every state. In some, it was expected, like Córdoba and Santa Fe, but he won in almost all of them.

How do you explain it?

— On the one hand, it could be the low turnout, although 67% isn't that low. But on the other hand, I think people voted more out of fear of another currency crisis if Milei were to lose. Let's remember that Donald Trump warned that if Milei didn't win this election, the United States wouldn't be so generous in its bailout of the Argentine economy, and that has had consequences. I think the key message is that many Argentines, despite disagreeing with some of Milei's things, want the reforms to continue.

So you think Trump's threat has worked?

— I think that fear of another crisis has worked in part, because the fact that there was a US bailout was negative for Milei because it shows she hasn't done things right. But I think people have opted for stability, because the bailout is the only salvation for the Argentine economy right now.

But many people are suffering economically because of Milei's cuts, and inflation has not stopped.

— It's true that the cuts have had very negative effects, especially on pensions and healthcare, but it's also true that the stabilization of inflation initially reduced poverty. Now the problem is that there is no growth and no job creation. The economy isn't growing, and poverty is on the rise again, and public services are deteriorating. But in reality, people there still believe that reform was necessary. Perhaps not in the radical terms Milei advocated, but the fiscal deficit needed to be reduced, and something had to be done.

If Milei has won this midterm plebiscite, do you think she will now further radicalize her agenda?

— I don't think so, because he doesn't have a sufficient majority and will have to negotiate to push through the remaining reforms. And we can already see that in his victory speech. He wasn't quite triumphant, only a little at first, but he immediately said he was extending his hand to negotiate, because he knows he can't do everything he wants. That victory gives him the ability to apply more negotiating pressure, though.

And how is the opposition?

— This is another interpretation of the results, as a punishment for Peronism. Argentines haven't seen him as a strong alternative because they're fighting among themselves, with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner criticizing Axel Kicillof [the Peronist governor of Buenos Aires]. But now they have two more years to recover and form a constructive opposition. Milei also has two more years to renew her project: the people have given her that vote of confidence, saying that two years was not enough to see results, but in two more years, when she's already been in office for four, we'll see what kind of country she has left, and we'll have to see how the economy is doing.