Milei's electoral defeat: Peronism sweeps Buenos Aires

Buenos AiresJavier Milei has suffered his first electoral setback since assuming the presidency of Argentina in December 2023. The province of Buenos Aires, the most populous in the country, voted this Sunday in legislative elections in which the ruling party obtained very poor results: it remained with around 34% of the votes, compared to . A result that was surprising, not because of the victory of Peronism - which is the most rooted political movement in this district - but because of the difference of almost 13 points between one force and the other, in a key pre-electoral context for Milei, who on October 26th will be playing to obtain a majority in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, in legislative elections in which, he claims, he has made Argentina.

"Without a doubt, on the political level, today we have suffered a clear defeat," Milei acknowledged to his supporters at the electoral headquarters in La Plata, the provincial capital, visibly concerned by the results. He added, in a reflective tone not often seen in his speeches: "This will lead to profound self-criticism; we will correct all the errors and everything we have done wrong." However, he quickly backtracked and reaffirmed his government plan: "The course on which we were elected in 2023 will not be modified; it will be redoubled." The far-right president promised not to back down even a millimeter from his plan for austerity, cuts, and fiscal balance.

Peronism, for its part, celebrated the victory at an event led by the provincial governor, Axel Kicillof, flanked by dozens of leaders and accompanied by activists. From house arrest, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner sent an audio message to her party in which she thanked the voters for their "democratic responsibility" in which they had "set a limit on a president who seems not to understand that he must govern for everyone." The former president, convicted of corruption and a symbolic leader of Peronism, interpreted the results as a warning to Milei: "The president has the responsibility to listen to the people of the province, who represent almost 40% of the national electorate."

The horizon of the legislative elections

There is still uncertainty about how the markets will react to the chainsaw's setback on Monday. But what is most worrying on the immediate horizon are the national legislative elections on October 26, which will be the true barometer by which popular approval of Milei's administration will be measured. They will determine the composition of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, where Milei currently holds a minority, pushing him to abuse the presidential decree. Throughout his nearly two years in office, support for the president has remained fairly stable until recently, when it suffered a dip. At the end of August, leaked audio recordings revealed an alleged corruption scheme involving his sister, Karina Milei, secretary to the presidency and a close confidant. Apparently, Karina had been triangulating the distribution of overcharges in the state purchase of medications for people with disabilities through the National Disability Agency, involving two other officials and the owner of the medication distribution company. A scandal that the courts are investigating and that has severely damaged the credibility of a government that came to power, in large part, thanks to a promise to end corruption supposedly rooted in Argentina's political culture.

Last Thursday, groups of people with disabilities and their companions erupted in euphoria at a demonstration outside Congress when it was learned that the legislative branch had rejected the presidential veto denying the disability emergency, which, as a result of that session, became law. The freeze on financial resources and the lack of coverage for therapies, medications, and services, along with increasingly burdensome bureaucratization, have led this group to a situation of extreme vulnerability, generating widespread empathy among public opinion, which has repudiated the audio recording case with much more vehemence than the police.

The day before, in the municipality of Moreno, in the province of Buenos Aires, hundreds of people attended the closing campaign event for La Libertad Avanza, the coalition led by Milei. In the hours leading up to the event, provincial government officials questioned the security that could be guaranteed for the president that day, following the attack Milei had suffered just a few days earlier at a caravan in the municipality of Lomas de Zamora, where a group of uninitiated individuals threw rocks, local bottles, and branches at her. A massive security presence was deployed in Moreno, with federal, provincial, and local police, and there were even minor incidents. But what was most striking was the small number of people who attended the event, which was lackluster and lacking the vigor and force that usually characterized Milei's public appearances.