Oil and the message
The US government has been explicit in stating that the objective of its intervention in Venezuela was to access hydrocarbon resources. The Latin American country is no longer a major crude oil producer, accounting for barely 0.8% of current global supply and far from the 7% it represented in 1970 due to corruption in the state oil company (PDVSA), lack of investment, and sanctions, but it possesses 17% of the world's largest reserves. However, thanks to Iranian and Chinese aid and the relaxation of restrictions on international companies such as the US-based Chevron and the Spanish Repsol, the country had managed to increase its oil production again.
Venezuelan crude is heavy, of poor quality, and has traditionally been destined for the United States, which has refineries specifically designed to process this type of crude. Therefore, despite the hydraulic fracturing revolution (frackingWhile the United States has become a net exporter of light crude, the country remains an important producer of heavy crude. US control of Venezuelan oil would facilitate increased crude production in Venezuela and its exports to the United States, helping to cover part of domestic consumption and allowing for more US exports of light crude and refined products (such as gasoline) to the rest of the world. Therefore, companies will need legal and institutional stability and a clear outlook for the return on their investments in a context of global crude oil oversupply and contained Brent prices. Currently, none of this is guaranteed.
Beyond the economic and energy implications, the United States has sent a strong message. It will not tolerate political projects not aligned with its interests in the sphere of influence. The Chavista regime had managed to evade US pressure through crude oil-for-gasoline swaps, payments in kind, and the use of the "ghost fleet." However, shortly after taking office, Trump increased the pressure by revoking the licenses of non-US companies to operate in Venezuela and threatening a 25% tariff on any country that imported Venezuelan oil. He effectively turned Chevron into the new US India Company, the only one authorized to produce and export Venezuelan oil. With the naval blockade and oil embargo, he went a step further, authorizing the capture of ships and the seizure of their cargo. This directly affects Cuba—the only Petrocaribe country still receiving Venezuelan aid and crude—and China, the main export destination for Venezuelan hydrocarbons for the past decade. It also sends a coded message domestically—only interventions that benefit the United States—and affects other Venezuelan allies such as Russia, whose ghost fleet of tankers, operating outside the international financial and insurance system, has also fallen victim to the blockade and a transatlantic pursuit worthy of a war zone. It's a return to the gunboat politics and piracy of the 19th century. But nothing is set in stone, and this century was also the century of revolutions and the colonial emancipation of Latin America.
