Trump deploys elite forces in the Middle East and alarm grows over a ground invasion

WashingtonDonald Trump's attempts to steer the war with Iran down a diplomatic path have led to a metalinguistic debate about negotiations. Are there really peace talks? Are they just contacts mediated by third countries, such as Turkey and Pakistan? The regime flatly denies it, despite having rejected the peace proposal, and the US president fluctuates between threats to the ayatollahs – telling them to sit down and talk before it's "too late" – and repeated extensions of last weekend's ultimatum. A few hours before the deadline expired again, the tycoon announced a new 10-day extension yesterday.

To the verbal contradictions is added a material one: the United States is sending more troops to the region while the Republican is postponing a new possible escalation. This Friday, when in principle the deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was to end, about 2200

marines are expected to arrive in the Middle East. The Iranians distrust Trump's peace doves because the last time they brought the bombs that killed their supreme leader, Ali Jamenei.

The move to open a diplomatic channel while a military deployment is being made in the region threatens to become a cynical

déjà-vu. While the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and special envoy Steve Witkoff were negotiating in Switzerland with the Iranians about the nuclear program, the Pentagon was sending the aircraft carriers Abraham Lincoln and Gerald Ford, which would later be key in the February 28 attack. Now, to the marines arriving this Friday on board the amphibious assault ship Tripoli and the amphibious landing ship New Orleans, 2,000 more are added who are going with the Boxer and about 3,000 soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division. The crew of the Boxer will not arrive for a few weeks, but the elite paratroopers are trained to act with 18 hours' notice from activation.

In total, when it is about to be a month since what was supposed to be a controlled attack, Washington has already mobilized a reinforcement of almost 7,000 additional soldiers in the region. This is the largest deployment of US soldiers in the Middle East since the Iraq war and the Pentagon is already considering sending 10,000 more. In the Vietnam War, a much smaller number of troops was enough to bog down the United States in what would end up being one of its great defeats: the 3,500 marines from the 9th Expeditionary Brigade who landed in Da Nang in 1965. "It is a sufficient figure to start, but not to finish. You can say that it is a limited operation, and say it ironically; but that will naturally grow because you would not abandon those soldiers to their fate," explains to l'ARA the professor of political science at the University of Chicago Robert Pape. Pape has advised previous US administrations – including Trump's first presidency – on defense, especially in the area of air operations.

"It reminds me a lot of the invasion of Iraq"

Mike Prysner, a veteran of the Iraq War and a conscientious objector activist, is more direct: "Honestly, it reminds me a lot of the invasion of Iraq." Prysner explains to ARA how the latest troop movements are aimed at preparing a deployment. "This doesn't mean a ground invasion is inevitable, but it is a real contingency, that the president has said: 'I want to have the option to invade.' And that's why the Pentagon has prepared everything. So, if he makes the decision, they can carry out a ground invasion at any moment. Therefore, they not only have the planning done, but also the forces positioned to carry out the attack," he points out.

It's not the same to say that the option of putting boots on the ground is being considered as to materialize it; just as it's not the same to send aircraft carriers to the region – which have the function of directing air attacks – as to send amphibious landing ships and elite paratroopers. This is a clear escalation in the campaign that increasingly raises the cost of any miscalculation. The soldiers of the 82nd division are specialized in tasks as diverse as taking control of critical infrastructure or carrying out emergency evacuations. Their mobilization makes the option of Trump increasing ground presence more real than ever, despite having denied it on repeated occasions. "What can about 2,000 paratroopers do? They can take an airport. Kharg Island is not very large; it's only about 20,000 square kilometers and has a single airport," the professor points out, warning that the U.S. is rapidly approaching a new escalation of the war that could turn into a trap with no way out.

Jarg is Iran's crown jewel due to its key role in oil supply. In recent days, it has been speculated that, in the context of a new escalation with more bombings against the regime's energy infrastructure, paratroopers might be used to take control of the island. Tehran has even warned that they are prepared for this scenario. As has happened with this war since it began, showy gains have not guaranteed a total victory. Quite the contrary; they have further muddied the situation to the point of dragging the U.S. into the possibility of increasing military presence. "So, they would land at the airport and, as seen in movies, take it and defend the perimeter. But they cannot control the rest of the island. If they tried, even small resistance would eliminate them. Furthermore, once the airport is taken, they only have enough supplies to hold out for about 72 hours; perhaps four days, but they cannot hold out for four weeks on their own without receiving more supplies," explains Pape. The victory they would claim if they managed to control the airport quickly would degenerate into a spiral that would necessitate sending more reinforcements.

"A hunt"

Pape talks about Kharg because it has been the most cited enclave in recent hours, but he emphasizes that it could be any other infrastructure. Other scenarios that would be on the table are either invading the island of Laraq or that of Abu Musa, both key to controlling the Strait of Hormuz, or seizing ships exporting Iranian oil from the eastern side of the maritime passage. Regarding the capacity of the 5000 marines sent to the region, Pape explains that what they can do is "take and hold" a limited size territory. The mobilized marines are part of the MEU (Marine Expeditionary Units) corps. It is a force always ready to act that can quickly reach a location and intervene without the need for a large invasion.

However, as Pape explains, the MEUs move in these amphibious ships, like the Tripoli, which are "big, easy targets for Iran." "We must bear in mind that there are about 500 miles from the Strait of Hormuz to Kharg Island. Therefore, if this journey has to be made, it is more than 24 hours, and this is precisely what makes it so dangerous," points out the professor. Although the riskiest part is the landing. The soldiers get off the ship directly into the water, and, even if they may have air support from the Ospreys, "they are completely exposed." "There are completely open lines of sight for the defenders, the Iranians, who can shoot them and eliminate them one by one. This would be a real hunt," remarks the professor.