The trap of celebrating Orbán's possible fall
The parade of far-right leaders through Hungary in recent weeks has been worthy of a superpower. In 16 years, Viktor Orbán has turned a country that represents less than 1% of the European GDP into a bulwark of global ultraconservatism. The latest visit, that of the Vice President of the United States, J.D. Vance, demonstrates the nervousness of leaders who know that in Budapest they are not only playing for a government, but a key battle for discourse.
It is tempting to say that the far-right is reaching its peak: from Marine Le Pen in France with the municipal elections, to the wear and tear of Giorgia Meloni with the referendum, to a United States of Donald Trump increasingly perceived as a threat to citizens' security and wallets. But let's not deceive ourselves: if Orbán loses this Sunday, it will not mean that the far-right is in terminal decline. It would be dangerously naive to confuse the fall of an autocrat with the decline of an ideology that has the right ingredients to continue flourishing: rampant inequalities, disconnected elites, and the lack of a better future project.
The fall of Orbán would only show that the far-right, once in power, becomes the same establishment it promised to dismantle, bending the system in its favor through corruption. If he falls, Europe will get rid of a Trojan horse, but not through its own merits. Brussels has limited itself to waiting for Orbán to fall by his own weight, and the damage caused is so profound that rebuilding a Hungary made in his image will be a titanic task.
On the contrary, if Orbán wins, the global far-right will not only save face, but will be able to argue that its model is fireproof. A Fidesz victory would be the guarantee certificate for J.D. Vance's strategy and the beacon that would illuminate the path for Le Pen or Abascal towards 2027.
The lack of an inspiring alternative
That Péter Magyar, a former insider of the regime, is the only real threat to Orbán with a discourse focused on anti-corruption, evidencing the lack of an exciting alternative. Strategist David Plouffe, former advisor to Barack Obama, told the New York Times this week that a winning campaign today is a major, constant audiovisual production, and Magyar has nailed it on social media. But, as expert Gabriella Zutrau, who was part of Zohran Mamdani's campaign in the New York elections, argued, the key to victory is not just an excellent online and offline campaign, but also having a real, exciting project: “We are not only failing to spread our worldview because we haven't reinforced the digital infrastructure [...]. We are failing to spread our worldview because we don't have one that inspires people.”
Herein lies the trap: it is complacent and dangerous to read a potential defeat of Orbán as a victory for the alternative against the far-right. Two intense years of electoral appointments are approaching (France, Spain, the European elections, etc.), and the ultraconservative wave will only be stopped by an inspiring, realistic, and brave proposal. If the alternative is just a better TikTok strategy and not a solution to the underlying problems, frustration will return. The far-right doesn't need to win every time; it only needs others to fail in their promise of well-being and security.