The Greens retain control of the government in the state of Baden-Württemberg, while the far right doubles its votes.

BerlinGermany's super-election year kicks off with a razor-thin victory for the Greens in the Baden-Württemberg state parliament elections over the conservatives, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to become the third-largest party in the state, according to ARD television. The Greens are projected to have won 30.3% of the vote, slightly ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) with 29.7%, pending final results. Meanwhile, the AfD, which campaigned on security and immigration issues and capitalized on voters' fears about the deteriorating economy, is projected to improve its results, rising from 9.7% in 2021 to 18.7%.

Among the losers in the elections is the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which, with 5.6% of the vote, would have obtained its worst result ever in a regional election in Baden-Württemberg. In 2021, it garnered 11% of the vote. The liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), with 4.4%, and the far-left party Die Linke (4.3%) would be left out of the regional parliament, failing to reach the 5% threshold. The FDP would not gain parliamentary representation for the first time.

These regional elections mark the end of a political era in this southwestern German state bordering France and Switzerland. After 15 years as head of the regional government, Winfried Kretschmann, a founding member of the Green Party, did not run for re-election. The 77-year-old leader had been Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg since 2011 and was the first—and so far only—Green head of government in a German federal state. Before him, Baden-Württemberg had been considered a Christian Democratic stronghold for decades. Conservative candidate Manuel Hagel had hoped to win Baden-Württemberg back for the CDU, but if the result is confirmed, Green Cem Özdemir will become the first Minister-President of Turkish origin to lead a German state. Born in Germany to Turkish immigrants who came to the country in the 1960s to work, Özdemir was a member of the Bundestag and a Member of the European Parliament. He was co-chair of Aliança 90/Els Verds from 2008 to 2018 and served as Minister of Agriculture from 2021 to 2025 in the government of Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

"What an election campaign, what a spectacular comeback," said Özdemir, greeted with cheers and loud applause by his party's supporters. For months, the CDU had clearly led in the polls, although in recent days Els Verds had narrowed the gap.

Young people at the polls

The electoral reform has introduced a double voting system in this Land, in which 7.7 million people were eligible to vote, and new rules for the distribution of seats in the regional parliament for the next five years. Another major development in these regional elections was that, for the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds could vote. Previously, only those over 18 could vote. But it is still unclear how the increase in young voters will affect the outcome.

The Minister-President of Baden-Württemberg is indirectly elected by the regional Parliament by a majority of the votes cast. Therefore, who will be the new head of the regional government depends on who manages to garner the most support in the state Parliament and what coalition is formed after the elections. According to political analysts, only a coalition between the CDU and the Greens, similar to the current one, would be possible. It would not include the far-right AfD, as no party wants to govern with the extreme right. Currently, Baden-Württemberg is governed by a coalition between the Greens and the Conservatives. In the outgoing regional parliament, the Greens hold 57 of the 154 seats, and the CDU holds 43. The SPD and FDP each have 18 seats, and the far-right AfD has 17. There is also one unaffiliated member of parliament. The economic situation was the issue that most concerned Baden-Württemberg residents in these elections, followed by immigration, the housing shortage, and rents, according to polls. Germany is experiencing a super-election year in 2026 with regional elections in five federal states. In addition to Baden-Württemberg, elections are being held in Rhineland-Palatinate in two weeks. In September, the residents of Saxony-Anhalt, Berlin, and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will go to the polls. These elections will be successive tests for the conservative Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has been in power since May 2025. If the CDU suffers several defeats, this could weaken Merz and his coalition partner, the SPD, at a time when the far right is gaining ground across the country. Of the five regional elections in 2026, Saxony-Anhalt is where Merz's party has the most to lose. The CDU not only risks losing control of this eastern German state government, but the far right could also come to power in a federal state for the first time.