Talks between Ukraine, Russia and the US end without a peace agreement

MoscowThe first trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, Russia, and the United States have not brought an end to the war any closer, but neither has anyone walked away from the dialogue. After two days of meetings in the United Arab Emirates, during which Russians and Ukrainians also held bilateral talks, the parties agreed on the usual assessments of the meetings as "constructive," "productive," and "positive," although they only agreed to continue the discussions. All indications are that the second round will take place next week, probably on Sunday, again in Abu Dhabi. Volodymyr Zelensky explained that the central focus of the discussions was the "possible parameters for ending the war" and that the American mediators proposed "possible formats" for shaping them and "the necessary security conditions" to achieve them. All of this was presented in an "almost friendly" tone, according to US officials, who emphasized in statements to various media outlets that the fact that both countries agreed to participate in trilateral talks is a sign that they "are confident in achieving progress." However, in reality, Washington has simply put its already known peace proposals on the table, and Kyiv and Moscow have agreed to continue talking.

The United States is inclined to make future military support for Kyiv contingent on the Ukrainian surrender of the territories occupied by Russia. The Kremlin is convinced that the White House is in favor of the Russian army controlling all of Donbas and freezing the front in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, as Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump reportedly agreed in Alaska in August. Meanwhile, Zelensky maintains that there is an understanding with the Americans to offer security guarantees in Ukraine in the event of a new Russian attack. This is one of the main problems: Washington has made separate commitments to Moscow and Kyiv that prove irreconcilable when taken together. Neither is the Ukrainian president willing to cede the last strongholds of Donetsk, nor does Putin want the West to be able to defend Ukraine.

No respite in the energy crisis

Despite reports in European media that Ukrainians and Americans would try to secure Russia's approval for a ceasefire on energy facilities, no progress in that direction has been reported. The latest massive Russian bombing of Ukrainian electrical infrastructure has not been seen by the US delegation as evidence of the Kremlin's unwillingness to pursue peace. Instead of prompting Kyiv to walk away from the talks, the Ukrainian envoys have been forced to continue negotiations to avoid being labeled as opposed to the peace process by the White House. Moreover, Putin's strategy of undermining the morale of Ukrainian society and pushing Zelensky toward a deal beneficial to Russia appears to be bearing fruit as Trump pressures the Ukrainian president to make painful concessions. Furthermore, it is the Russian government that has accused Ukraine of trying to sabotage the talks with this morning's attack on an ambulance in Kherson, which resulted in the deaths of three paramedics. The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned this "terrorist act" and lamented that Kyiv is taking "a further step towards escalation" and demonstrating "its true, completely irresponsible attitude towards the ongoing efforts to resolve the conflict."

According to the Russian newspaper EJIn Abu Dhabi, the resumption of prisoner-of-war exchanges has also been discussed. This was one of the few outcomes of the rounds of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine last spring in Istanbul. Since then, Moscow has maintained its maximum demands, which, in practice, amount to the surrender of Kyiv.