Putin's interests in the war between Israel and Iran

MoscowVladimir Putin fears a misstep in the Middle East conflict. The war between Israel and Iran offers Russia opportunities, but above all, it presents risks and highlights the Kremlin's delicate geopolitical situation. Moscow attempts to strike a diplomatic balance between Tehran, Tel Aviv, and Washington, and does not want to even think about a remote, but not impossible, fall of the regime of the ayatollahs, its great ally in the region.

As soon as Israel attacked Iran, Russia rushed to condemn the aggression and warned of a potential nuclear catastrophe, but instead of unequivocally closing ranks with its ally, it chose to present itself as a mediator between the two sides. The strategic partnership agreement signed between Moscow and Tehran at the beginning of the year does not contemplate mutual military aid, but only prohibits the supply of weapons to the enemy. However, even experts close to the Kremlin, such as Andrei Kortunov, They admit that the reality is that Russia was unable to prevent a massive attack against a key ally.

He couldn't and doesn't want to, so Putin has raised the banner of mediation. The pieces of the Kremlin's diplomatic puzzle are difficult to fit together. First, the Russian president would like to avoid jeopardizing dialogue with Donald Trump and, at the same time, be perceived by the White House as a useful player in resolving the conflict and obtaining compensation in return. Second, Russia is not interested in confronting Israel, a country with which it has not severed relations despite the war in Ukraine and which has not imposed sanctions. According to Russian political analyst Mark Galeotti, Putin was drawn into supporting Hamas after the October 7, 2023, attack. because he needed the Iranian drones, but did so reluctantly. Galeotti claims that the Kremlin is afraid of supporting Iran if it has the odds against it and that, furthermore, they admire the way the Israeli army has hit Tehran.

From his point of view, the Russia-Iran alliance has always been "transactional, complex, and artificial." Moscow does not really want to nuclearly arm the ayatollahs' regime or provide it with direct assistance in producing nuclear warheads. Even when it intervened militarily in Syria, it did so, among many other reasons, to prevent it from falling under Iranian influence. Moreover, the Kremlin now barely needs Iranian drones and is more interested in cultivating relations with other regional powers: Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia.

In any case, this does not mean that Putin desires an eventual regime change in Iran. Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria in December, Russia's position in the Middle East has been greatly weakened. Despite the differences between the two cases, neither now nor then has Moscow, mired in a war with no end in sight, been able to help its partners in the eyes of the world and has seen its anti-Western coalition weaken. Be that as it may, Kremlin commentators view it as highly unlikely that Israel and the United States will be able to force the overthrow of the Iranian regime because the opposition is insufficiently strong.

Short-term benefits

A scenario that, a priori, would seem more positive for Russia—a peaceful resolution to the escalation—also poses long-term threats. Currently, the Russian economy is benefiting from the rise in oil prices resulting from the crisis, and this, in turn, is swelling the state budget. However, experts do not believe this rise will be sustained, nor that the Kremlin will be able to capitalize on it in the long term. What worries Moscow are the terms of a possible agreement between the United States and Iran: if Tehran were to agree to abandon its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of sanctions, it would open the door to increased Iranian oil production, which would threaten the competitiveness of Russian fuel.

Thus, Putin would ultimately be interested in a war of attrition that would keep oil prices high and, above all, draw Trump's attention and his military aid away from Ukraine. The United States has already redirected 20,000 anti-aircraft missiles that Zelensky expected to be launched toward the Middle East. This Tuesday, for example, the impact of a missile on a Kiev apartment building, killing 23 people, including an American citizen, failed to even receive condemnation from the White House. Furthermore, Trump's justification of Israel's aggression as a preemptive strike gives the Kremlin leader even more ammunition to continue bombing Ukrainian cities and advancing his front lines.