The keys to understanding the war between Israel and Iran

BarcelonaIsrael launched an unprecedented attack on Iran on Friday., with hundreds of fighter jets and drones against the Iranian army and nuclear program. Iran responded with hundreds of missiles, which managed to overcome Israeli air defenses and hit Tel Aviv. The attacks and counterattacks have continued to this day, as has the escalating dialectic: Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has said he will attack "each and every target of the ayatollahs' regime," and Tehran will continue its counterattacks "wherever necessary and as long as necessary." The world holds its breath in the face of an escalation that could destabilize the entire region, while in the shadow of the regional war, the genocide in the Gaza Strip continues.

What is the history of Iran-Israel relations?

Israel's attack comes after decades of covert warfare against Iran, involving targeted assassinations, espionage, cyberattacks, and proxy conflicts with Iran's allies in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen. Until now, the rule had been attrition, avoiding open confrontation. But Israel broke this unwritten rule with Friday's attack, which prompted Iranian retaliation, in an escalation that has now lasted four days and appears out of control.

What have been the objectives of Israel's attacks?

Israel has attacked nuclear facilities, including the Natanz nuclear plant, the spearhead of Iran's nuclear program, because it is where uranium, the fuel for nuclear power plants and potentially the material for making atomic bombs, is enriched. nuclear program, which Iran claims is for peaceful purposes, but which Israel and the United States consider a threatThey also attacked two gas refineries in the south of the country and two fuel depots in the capital. But it is difficult to confirm the damage toll due to the censorship imposed by the regime. In any case, the scope of the Israeli offensive goes far beyond the nuclear program. Israeli fighter jets and drones, which were activated from within the country after a lengthy intelligence and infiltration operation, also attacked military bases, air defenses, and ground-to-ground and surface-to-air missile launch sites, as well as fighter hangars, with the aim of...

Tel Aviv has demonstrated that its espionage can locate and kill senior military officials, including Hussein Salami, head of the Revolutionary Guard, Iran's elite military corps, and the chief of staff, General Mohamed Bagheri, in addition to some 30 commanders. In other words, it is capable of decapitating the military structure of the Iranian regime. Netanyahu has stated that he hopes the attack, which he said could last for weeks, will trigger the end "of the regime that has oppressed the Iranian people for 46 years." He claims that 280 targets in Iran were attacked, including the Defense Ministry.

Iran has also reported civilian casualties, including the attack on a residential building in the Farahzad neighborhood of Tehran, which reportedly killed 60 people, including 20 children. The official death toll is 224, but Washington-based opposition groups double the number. Israeli bombing continues, and the Israeli military claims that already has control of the skies over Tehran.

The Netanyahu government's objectives, therefore, go beyond Iran's nuclear program and could be a significant blow to fracture the Islamic Republic's regime.

How has Iran responded?

Iran has defended itself with several waves of missile and drone attacks, which Israeli authorities say have left 24 dead. There have also been civilian casualties on the outskirts of Tel Aviv, in the Palestinian-majority town of Tamra, and in Haifa, the mixed port city in northern Israel. Iran has threatened the United States, the United Kingdom, and France with attacks on their bases and warships if they protect Israel. US officials have told the media that they have already shot down some Iranian missiles targeting Israel. The Pentagon has also mobilized fighter jets and other military equipment to the region.

Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has threatened Israel with "severe punishment" in response to the attacks on civilians. The United States initially distanced itself from the attack, but Donald Trump later endorsed it and said he believes the war will be short. Russia and Turkey have offered to mediate.

Why now?

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu justified the attack by saying that Iran was on the verge of manufacturing nine atomic bombs. This claim has not been confirmed by either the US secret services or the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), although this international body had warned in its latest report last Thursday that Tehran was not cooperating with its inspectors, as Alejandro Zurita, former head of the European Union's Euratom program, explained to ARA. The Israeli attack has disrupted talks between the United States and Iran on the nuclear program, which Donald Trump had resumed upon returning to the presidency. Representatives from Washington and Tehran were scheduled to meet this Sunday in Oman to advance the negotiations. The Pentagon proposed that Iran limit uranium enrichment to 3% purity, and Iran demanded the lifting of sanctions. Trump had set a 60-day deadline for reaching an agreement, but the Israeli attack occurred just as that deadline expired.

Another factor that explains the timing of the attack is the weakening of Iran's regional allies –Hezbollah in Lebanon, a fallen Assad in Syria, and a trapped Hamas in Gaza– making Tehran more vulnerable.

Behind closed doors, Netanyahu's government is facing one of the most critical chapters for its stability. Last week, it narrowly escaped a motion presented in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament, by ultra-Orthodox parties, which threatened to overthrow the government if it did not exempt students from Talmudic schools from military service. The Supreme Court had ruled that they could not be exempt from the war effort due to recruitment difficulties. The crisis is not over.

Likewise, in recent weeks, Israel has faced growing international criticism over the humanitarian impact of the attack on Gaza, with more voices demanding a ceasefire and the entry of humanitarian aid: the United Kingdom and the European Union have threatened to paralyze trade relations with Israel. The war with Iran has brought down a thick smokescreen over what is happening in Gaza, where massacres have continued in the bombings and at the humanitarian aid distribution points. controversial mechanism imposed in collaboration with the United States to bypass the UN and NGOs. Since Friday's Israeli attack, the army has blocked access to the West Bank and communication between Palestinian cities.

Can de-escalation occur?

It depends, above all, on what the United States does. Not only has Israel dragged Iran into the war, but it also intends for the United States to get involved. He maintains a certain distance, but he also does not distance himself from Israel.

On the one hand, Trump also has much to gain by destroying the only government in the region that rejects him. Roig. At the same time, getting involved in a full-scale war would contradict Trump's promise of "America first"and the MAGA rhetoric of "enough with young Americans dying in distant deserts."