Putin is disillusioned with Trump and once again sees the US as a rival

Moscow"The United States doesn't want allies, but vassals, and Russia cannot accept that framework for relations." These words of Vladimir Putin in 2015 resonate with increasing force among Russian analysts since the US attack on Iran. The aggression, in the midst of negotiations, has alarmed Moscow. who doubts the usefulness of engaging in dialogue with Donald TrumpAfter a year of rapprochement, Washington has once again revealed itself as a geostrategic adversary, and the Kremlin is becoming convinced that it cannot expect anything regarding the resolution of the war in Ukraine.

"What is happening in Iran demonstrates that we cannot rely on any diplomatic agreement with the United States to solve our problems," says Fyodor Lukyanov, one of the foreign policy experts closest to the Russian government. Skepticism toward the US president has given way to distrust. According to Dmitri Trenin, a former Russian intelligence colonel and expert in international relations, Trump is an "unreliable" partner, and every word and every document he signs must be treated "with caution," since his commitments "guarantee nothing."

This caution also extends to his negotiators with Russia, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the same ones who could not or would not prevent their boss from scuttling the talks with Tehran. “Negotiating with the United States the way it was done during the Cold War is impossible. They won’t negotiate with anyone on equal terms because they don’t consider anyone their equal,” Trenin adds. From this perspective, Trump is leading Washington into a “clash” with Moscow. He believes that the White House leader is trying to impose a “global hegemony 2.0” and that Ukraine is just another front in this battle. Therefore, he concludes: "America is not a mediator, but a key player on the enemy side."

Another element of the attack on Iran that has shaken the Kremlin has been the strategy of decapitating the top brass of the ayatollahs' regime. Russian geopolitical expert Ivan Timofeyev, of the influentialthink tankThe Valdai Club warns that Russian leaders could become "easy targets" due to "gaps in counterintelligence" and "weaknesses in air defense systems." According to some commentators, this precaution would explain why Putin has rarely been seen at the presidential administration in recent days and even why internet service has been cut off in central Moscow.

Only against the West

The consensus among analysts aligned with the Russian government is that it is necessary to help the countries that are victims of Trump's interventionism, although Russia must focus on its war because no one will come to its aid. "Iran is currently holding our second front. We must hold the first and not be swayed again by promises of jeans and chewing gum," writes Dmitri Popov, columnist for theMoskovsky KomsomoletsThis evokes the craze for these Western products during the Soviet period.

This translates into an axiom that Putin himself has repeated on several occasions: "We must continue fighting in Ukraine until we achieve our objectives." According to Trenin, no one can be expected to concede anything to Russia, nor can any security guarantees be relied upon; rather, security must be secured by military means. Timofeyev also celebrates the Kremlin's "stubbornness" in the peace negotiations and advocates against making any concessions to Kyiv and Washington because they will use this to demand further concessions. "The Iranian lesson only reinforces this perception," he concludes.

After three weeks of conflict in the Middle East, Moscow has finally admitted that talks with Ukraine are "suspended" while the United States remains mired in Iran. Having evaporated what in Moscow was dubbed "the spirit of Alaska"The understanding that the Americans had accepted the Russian terms to end the war has given way to the feeling that Trump now wants to abandon mediation because he sees it as a dead end. And Putin, although publicly resisting, also increasingly sees less and less possibility of obtaining anything positive from the dialogue.

No future in economic cooperation

The Kremlin's disenchantment with Washington is largely based on economic issues. Despite the recent partial lifting of restrictions on Russian oil, the tightening of sanctions last fall was a major setback for Moscow. "It's pure Bidenism," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who criticized the United States' objective of controlling global energy and asserted that he saw no "promising future" for economic cooperation between the two countries. Disillusionment with Trump is nothing new in Russia. Back in 2016, his first electoral victory was greeted with champagne in some Duma offices, and some propagandists claimed he would parade through Moscow waving American flags. Then, the disappointment came in the form of sanctions. Now, with initial expectations and the prospects for a thaw dashed, there are even those on Russian state television lamenting that the sniper who tried to assassinate the Republican candidate during the campaign didn't aim a few centimeters further to the right.