Maduro, increasingly isolated in Trump's backyard

WashingtonThe possible US military intervention in Venezuela it's taking shapeAnd it also highlights Nicolás Maduro's isolation in Latin America. Donald Trump's interventionism has brought down some of Caracas's allies—as happened in the recent elections in Honduras—and long-time comrades, like Cuba, have already distanced themselves from the idea of entering into conflict with the United States in the event of aggression against the Chavista regime. He suffers doubly from Trump's pressures In a revival of the backyard doctrine, he sees his power faltering while becoming increasingly surrounded by right-wing governments aligned with Washington.

Trump first burst onto the scene in the region under the guise of his supposed war on drugs, which took a backseat when he needed to boost right-wing candidates in the Honduran elections. Last week, the Republican pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández, sentenced by the United States to 45 years in prison for drug trafficking, and relegated Rixi Moncada, the candidate of leftist President Xiomara Castro, an ally of Maduro, to third place. Conversely, the pardon in Orlando strengthened the two right-wing candidates: Salvador Nasralla and Nasry. Tito Asfura, whom Trump designated as the favorite.

Not satisfied with pushing the Honduran right, Trump wanted his candidate to win and threatened to withdraw aid to the country if the recount wasn't favorable to Asfura. "If he [Asfura] doesn't win, the United States will not spend money in Honduras," he wrote on Friday on his platform, Truth Social. The vote count in Honduras was frozen on Sunday just as Asfura was still ahead of Nasralla by a very narrow margin. The US president was repeating the exact same playbook he used in October during the Argentine legislative elections. Trump used the multi-million dollar bailout of the Argentine peso to pressure for the party of his ally Javier Milei, amid the Argentine president's corruption scandals and previous electoral defeats in key provinces.

Trump threatened to cut the few remaining aid programs in Honduras in the hope of bringing Asfura into his bloc of Latin American allies, along with Javier Milei in Argentina, Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, and Santiago Peña, who won the election in October. Asfura is known for his opposition to Venezuela and Cuba, as well as to... China's growing influence in the region. One of the motivations behind aggressive US interventionism in the region is to curb the influence the Asian giant has gained in recent years through the Belt and Road Initiative.

Caracas, also isolated from the left

Trump's pressure coincides with a time when left-wing governments in Latin America have cooled their relations with Caracas. Both Lula da Silva in Brazil and Gustavo Petro in Colombia have distanced themselves from the successor of Hugo Chávez, who died in 2013. The relationship with Petro has not been easy for Maduro. Although the Colombian was one of the first to speak out against the attacks on ships in the Caribbean and has maintained that Maduro has no connection to drug trafficking—the accusation Trump leveled against him, labeling him a narco-terrorist—he did acknowledge that the Venezuelan president's problem was "the legitimacy of Maduro." Maduro's legitimacy was called into question after his electoral victory was proclaimed by the National Electoral Council, a government-controlled body, and due to the non-publication of the election results. The administration of former President Joe Biden recognized the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, as the winner of those elections.

Even Cuba, which has always been a major enemy of the United States and has supported Chavismo, has backed down in the face of a possible military intervention by Washington. Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez told CNN in late September that Cuba "fully and completely supports" the Venezuelan government. But when asked if Cuba When asked if the US would respond to a US attack against that country, the foreign minister avoided answering directly: "It's a hypothetical scenario. When I am informed that a US military intervention has taken place, I will let you know." Cuba, which is suffering a major economic crisis, is not in a position to provide military support and does not want to be drawn into a possible armed conflict with Washington. None of the left-wing governments in the region want the tensions between the US and Venezuela to end up affecting them.