Left and right, neck and neck in the count in Sweden

CopenhagenThe election night count is dragging on in Sweden, where nerves are on edge. The Social Democrats have won the general election in a race where it was at stake whether the far-right would enter the Scandinavian country's government for the first time, a scenario that cannot be ruled out. Turnout has exceeded 80%.

With 73% counted, the Social Democratic Party has 27.8% of the vote and 99 seats, followed by the Moderate Party (19.8%), with 70 seats, and, in third place, the far-right Sweden Democrats (17.7%), who would have 63 deputies. The parties of the progressive bloc would obtain a very narrow majority with 49.3% of the votes, compared to the parties of the conservative bloc, which have obtained 49.1%. The final outcome of the elections may depend on the counting of the overseas vote, which will not be known until next Wednesday. According to the public television broadcaster SVT, the difference between the two blocs, the progressive and the conservative, is only 20,000 votes.

If you want to investigate the chart in more detail, open the high-resolution version in another tab.Despite having won the elections, Magdalena Andersson's Social Democrats have obtained the worst result in their history with a 2.7% drop compared to the 2022 general elections, which were already a setback for the party. Nevertheless, the party is once again the most voted in Sweden and if the result is confirmed it will have the opportunity to lead a new government, in a European context in which social democratic parties have been losing weight and power. For its part, the far-right, which aspires to obtain a place in the government if the parties of the conservative bloc managed to reedite the majority, for the first time has seen that its results remained stagnant compared to the last elections.

The elections have been marked by the debate on the state of public services, immigration and the economy, but also by the possibility that the Sweden Democrats enter the government for the first time and become part of the country's executive.A possible entry of the far-right into the executive would culminate the transformation of the Sweden Democrats, a party that for decades has been a pariah of Swedish politics and which is now considered by the conservative bloc a legitimate and reliable governing partner. The Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson, (62 years old), was elected to the office in 2022 leading a coalition with the Christian Democrats and the Liberal Party. This majority was possible thanks to the support of the SD, which, even though it remained outside the government, has managed to exert great influence over the executive, especially in immigration and security policies, which have been one of the main factors in the conservative shift that Sweden has experienced in recent years.Closed door

On the other hand, the Social Democrats of Magdalena Andersson (59 years old) have focused their campaign on making a fierce defense of the welfare state and helping families with difficulties cope with rising prices. Faced with the restrictive shift in migration policies of the last conservative government, which has meant the end of the refugee welcome culture in the Nordic country, Andersson has committed to maintaining this restrictive policy if the Social Democrats come to power. The Labour leader, who was already prime minister between the years 2021 and 2022, has declared that the immigration policy that Sweden had promoted in the past was “unsustainable”, and has also pointed out that her party would be willing to support “return centres” for immigrants outside the EU, in the event that her formation comes to power.One of the main obstacles for Andersson would be to manage to form a government majority among the parties of the progressive bloc, since during the campaign they have shown themselves to be quite divided among themselves. This bloc has four formations in addition to the Social Democrats, which include the Centre Party (of agrarian and centrist tradition), the Green Party, and the Left Party (feminist and ecologist, located furthest to the left in Parliament). During the campaign, the Centre Party has frontally opposed incorporating the Left Party into a possible coalition government. At the same time, the formations located further to the left have questioned the restrictive migration policy of the Social Democrats. Beyond that, Andersson has expressed concern about incorporating the Left Party into a possible government after the scandal that caused during the campaign when some of its members expressed their support for the Palestinian organization Hamas, considered a terrorist group. For all these reasons, analysts do not rule out that the Social Democrats may seek to form a centrist majority, although that will also be difficult.