Germany accuses Russia of the drone attack attempt at Leipzig airport

BarcelonaPoland, Estonia, Latvia, Sweden, Romania, Lithuania, and now Germany too. Incursions and drone threats in NATO territory have become more frequent in recent months and have intensified. In early August, a drone loaded with explosives impacted a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig airport without detonating, in one of the most direct sabotage attempts recorded so far at a key NATO logistics hub and further into European territory. After almost a month of investigations, this Tuesday, for the first time, the German government has directly blamed Russian intelligence services for the incident.

Police investigations, crime patterns, and intelligence service conclusions have led the German executive to attribute "Russian responsibility for the attempted attack on Leipzig airport," stated the German Interior Minister, Alexander Dobrindt. As the minister himself already hinted immediately after the incident, Berlin understands that the drone incursion is part of a broader Russian hybrid warfare campaign aimed at destabilizing Europe. "We are the daily target of hybrid warfare," Dobrindt said at the time. "Espionage, sabotage, cyberattacks, or covert operations by foreign powers aimed at destabilizing Germany or inflicting direct damage are a constant reality."

So far, the Kremlin has shrugged off responsibility, claiming there is no evidence of its authorship. Moscow, which in August called the alleged attack a "fabricated provocation" and expressed "concern about a new wave of anti-Russian hysteria in Germany," stated this Tuesday that it will respond to Germany's "anti-Russian actions."

In line with what Chancellor Friedrich Merz had previously stated—who assured last week that his government will make "the perpetrators of hybrid attacks pay a price"—the German executive has announced that it will take measures against Russia, such as closing Russia's general consulate in Bonn and rescinding the agreement with the Russian House cultural center in Berlin. According to information from the German newspaper Bild, Berlin could go even further and expel employees of the Russian embassy in Germany.

But, at the same time, the chancellor is committed to a coordinated response with European and NATO partners, which should arrive "in the coming days". According to diplomatic sources cited by Politico, the plan currently being reviewed – and which will be discussed this Tuesday and Wednesday at the informal meeting of EU Foreign Affairs Ministers – foresees massive sanctions against some 1,600 Russian actors, including 800 individuals and 800 companies. And the debate on the use of frozen Russian assets is also expected to be reopened, although Belgium, the state where the seized funds are held, will need to be convinced first.

A new phase of hybrid warfare

The Leipzig events are part of a series of similar, increasingly frequent episodes that serve as a reminder that Europe is not on the sidelines of the war in Ukraine. On several occasions, the Atlantic alliance's resources have had to be mobilized to intercept Russian fighter jets and intelligence aircraft (such as the Il-20 or Tu-22M3) over the Baltic Sea, flying without transponders to avoid detection. In the east of the continent, several airspace violations in Poland and Romania by Russian drones have been recorded, which have had to be shot down by NATO fighters. At the end of May, an unmanned Russian aircraft deviated from its target in Ukraine and injured two people in the Romanian city of Galati, the first victims on Community territory.

"There is an intensification of hybrid warfare; quantitatively, but especially in the qualitative dimension," Domènech Ruiz Revesa, Senior Researcher at Cidob in security and defense, assures ARA, insisting on the increase in cases of physical sabotage of infrastructure. "Since the Leipzig episode, we have entered a new phase of hybrid warfare. We have moved from the digital to the physical realm, which adds to its gravity." "We are getting closer and closer to conventional warfare," he concludes.

The incursion of the drone loaded with explosives into German territory has been the last straw and has alerted European governments. "[The incident in Leipzig] is a signal that we must consider the possibility of more direct and violent actions on our territory," Celine Berthon, director of the French counter-intelligence agency DGSI, stated last week. Berthon warned at a business forum of a "meteoric" increase in hybrid threats – such as cyber penetrations and violent acts perpetrated by local intermediaries – in the defense and technology industries, and in strategic sectors such as energy and communications.