From Hezbollah to the Houthis, the war in Iran exposes the internal fissures of the resistance axis

BeirutThe regional war unleashed after the attacks against Iran This has placed the so-called "axis of resistance" at the center of its deepest crisis in its two decades of history. As Israel intensifies its bombing of Lebanon—including the southern suburbs of Beirut—and the conflict with Iran spreads across the region, Tehran's network of allies attempts to maintain a semblance of unity. But behind the scenes, tensions, political calculations, and survival strategies are multiplying.

At the heart of this structure is Hezbollah. For years, the Lebanese movement was the most powerful actor in the axis, the key link connecting Iran to the Mediterranean and coordinating, directly or indirectly, other allied militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Today, however, the group is under unprecedented pressure.

Israeli bombing has intensified on its traditional strongholdsFrom the south of the country to the southern suburbs of Beirut and the Bekaa Valley in the center, destroyed buildings, evacuated neighborhoods, and thousands of displaced people show the impact of an offensive aimed at weakening Hezbollah's military capabilities. At the same time, Hezbollah continues to launch rockets and missiles at Israeli positions in the north, in an attempt to maintain pressure without provoking a full-scale confrontation. But the pressure is not only coming from abroad. The Lebanese government has made a historic decision by prohibiting any military activity by Hezbollah within the country and asserting that "war and peace" are decisions "exclusively" of the state. The army has begun checks and arrests for weapons possession, a move that reflects the growing unease among Lebanese politicians regarding Hezbollah's involvement in a conflict that threatens to drag the country into disaster. Within Hezbollah, there are also visible, though not always public, tensions. The military wing advocates maintaining an aggressive stance toward Israel to protect the group's credibility and deterrent capacity. More political and pragmatic sectors fear that a full-blown escalation would jeopardize the organization's survival within the Lebanese system. Furthermore, the movement's social base is beginning to show signs of fatigue: Shia areas have once again suffered displacement, destruction, and open warfare. Although support for the resistance remains strong, the population is weary and wary of the possibility of a more devastating conflict.

Fragmentation

These tensions within Hezbollah reflect a larger problem within the resistance axis. For years, Iran's strategy relied on maintaining a network of allies capable of opening multiple fronts if the country were attacked. But the current war shows that this network operates in a fragmented way. In Iraq, the Shia militias grouped in the Popular Mobilization Forces maintain an ambiguous stance. Some factions close to Iran, such as Kataib Hezbollah, have launched limited drone and rocket attacks against US interests. However, most avoid full involvement in the regional war. Many of these militias are part of the Iraqi security apparatus and depend on the state budget. Opening a large military front could jeopardize their political influence and destabilize the country. Furthermore, the Iraqi militia field is marked by internal rivalries and local agendas. Unlike Hezbollah, which has a centralized structure, Iraqi militias operate more independently, limiting their ability to act as a coherent bloc within the axis.

Even more unpredictable is the case of Ansar Allah, the Houthis who control large areas of Yemen. In recent years, the group has developed the capacity to launch missiles and drones long-range, allowing it to project power far beyond its borders. Its attacks on shipping lanes and regional targets have made it one of the most active actors in the axis. But they are also calibrating the limits of their involvement in the current war. An escalation that is too direct could provoke a military intervention against the territory they control.

Taken together, these developments show that the resistance axis no longer functions as a centralized alliance. Each actor responds according to its national interests. The network now operates as a collection of independent actors linked by strategic ties but with tactical autonomy.

Israel exploits the cracks

For Iran, this decentralization has both advantages and risks. It allows the network to survive even if some of its components are hit, but it reduces its capacity to coordinate a unified response to a major crisis. However, Israel seems to be exploiting these vulnerabilities. Its attacks aim not only to weaken Hezbollah's military capabilities but also to erode the regional network Iran has built over decades. In this context, the future of the axis depends largely on what happens in Lebanon. Hezbollah remains the most powerful actor in the group and the main bridge between Iran and the Mediterranean. But today it faces unprecedented simultaneous pressure: the war with Israel, internal political pressure, and tensions running through the resistance axis itself. The war against Iran has not destroyed this network of allies, but it has exposed something that had been hidden for years: its deep divisions. Each day of conflict reveals the fragilities that could determine whether the axis manages to hold together or fragments in the face of the first major crisis.