Draghi, Merkel or Schröder: the EU, pressured to find the ideal candidate to negotiate with Putin

BrusselsThe European Union does not want to start building the house from the roof. Community leaders and those from the vast majority of member states avoid answering every time they are asked about the carousel of names to mediate potential negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Brussels and European partners want to lay the foundations first. Both the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, and various Foreign Ministers and sources from the European Council agree in emphasizing that, above all, it is necessary to agree on what should be negotiated with Moscow and how, and then decide who leads a European delegation that in no case is intended to have the role of a neutral mediator, but rather as a party, and clearly in favor of Ukraine.

Kallas considers that discussing now the election of a European mediator between Kyiv and Moscow is "falling into the trap" set by Vladimir Putin. In fact, it was the Russian president himself who put the issue on the table when he suggested, at the beginning of the month, that a suitable profile could be the former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder. At that time, both Kallas and the vast majority of countries closed the door to this option and recalled that the former German leader has been a great lobbyist for the Kremlin and is very close to Putin himself.

Nevertheless, Moscow managed to light the fuse of the debate, and a few days later the leading newspaper for European institutions, the Financial Times, published that there were already voices in Brussels talking about which names could represent the EU or act as mediators in an eventual negotiation table between the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Some of those pointed out by the British newspaper are the former president of the European Central Bank and former Prime Minister of Italy Mario Draghi, the former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the former President of Finland Sauli Niinistö, or the current president of the country, Alexander Stubb.

It is at this point that the spokesperson for the European Commission, Paula Pinho, Kallas and several Foreign Ministers have tried to downplay the shuffle of names, because, for other reasons, they consider that it benefits Putin. The head of European diplomacy believes that it diverts attention from what exactly the European bloc's demands should be to sign an eventual peace agreement, and points out that Moscow can prematurely turn the name that the EU chooses into one of the negotiation points. Thus, Kallas insists that Putin cannot veto any of the profiles that the EU ends up sending, and above all, she wants to avoid Moscow's narrative winning, which wants the EU to only participate in the election of the mediator between the two parties and remain without a seat at the negotiating table from which to defend Ukraine's interests unreservedly.

The debate about the candidates

Although European leaders avoid fueling the debate, for days now speculations have been circulating in European institutions about what would be the most appropriate name. Diplomatic sources from the European Council point out to ARA that, at least in the formal and serious arena, member states and Brussels are not yet at the point of discussing which profile to send to the negotiation table, be it as a mediator or as a representative of the EU and defender of Ukrainian interests. All diplomatic sources consulted by this newspaper agree in pointing out that it is too early to have this discussion and that before that, consensus should be reached on what demands to make to Moscow and, among other things, what format the negotiation table should have.

Furthermore, the consulted sources see little potential in the names that have appeared in the media. In this regard, they consider that Draghi has a more economic than diplomatic profile, even though he is one of the leaders who enjoy the greatest consensus within the EU; for example, he has been commissioned to prepare a report on how to boost European competitiveness that theoretically should set the main political lines for the future of the European bloc.

The same sources also do not see it as very likely that Merkel will be trusted, and they recall that she already participated in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in 2014, which ended with the Minsk Agreements. However, this pact did not put an end to the expansionist ambition of Putin's regime, and diplomatic sources do not consider it very appropriate to give a central role again to a policy that already failed in the past. Moreover, the former German chancellor was one of the main architects of the increase in Germany's dependence – and, therefore, of the European Union's – on Russian fossil fuels, which caused an energy crisis at the beginning of the war in Ukraine and which still affects European industry – especially German industry –. As for the Finnish president, who is the only one who has publicly shown himself available, they are more optimistic, although they also recall that he is a profile clearly on the Ukrainian side and of the European bloc.

In short, the majority of EU leaders advocate that the choice of the person to lead the European delegation or act as mediator be the last detail to be finalized in the European institutions before presenting themselves at a possible negotiation table between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, they urge to focus on what demands they intend to make to Moscow and to take advantage of the moment of weakness it is experiencing, even if Putin wants to divert attention and open debates that – in the opinion of European leaders – can divide the EU and that at this time lead nowhere.