Between the green agenda and the far right: Von der Leyen faces a vote of no confidence.

BrusselsUrsula von der Leyen has absolute control of the European Commission and remains the most powerful leader in Brussels. No one can even cast a shadow over her, and she has managed to appease all the voices that challenged her leadership. She has created a tailor-made executive and maintains great influence and support among the Member States. However, the German conservative is increasingly struggling to safeguard the coalition that sustains her in the European Parliament, and both the left and the right are increasing the pressure to bring her closer to their political positions.

It is in this context that Von der Leyen will face the motion of no confidence that will be debated this Monday in the European Parliament and voted on next Thursday. The motion of no confidence was presented by the Romanian far-right Gheorghe Piperea. Von der Leyen's lack of transparency in the purchase of vaccines in the midst of the COVID pandemic. In fact, the debate and vote come two months after the EU General Court ruled that Brussels should have made public the messages between Von der Leyen and the CEO of Pfizer. She took it to court. The New York Times after the same newspaper published these messages in which the head of the community executive allegedly closed the acquisition of vaccines with the pharmaceutical company without following the appropriate public procurement processes. Brussels for the dismantling of the European Union's environmental agendaIn fact, although the MEP who presented the motion of censure is far-right, the discontent against Von der Leyen is currently more to her left.

The initiative to oust the President of the European Commission has not been supported even by the Romanian MEP group that presented it, ECR (European Conservatives and Reformists), with which Von der Leyen has a good relationship and which is led by Italy's Giorgia Meloni. In contrast, Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens have revolted against the German conservative and urged her to stop the dismantling of the European green agenda. In any case, at least 72 MEPs voted in favor of the motion of censure, which is one of the requirements for its inclusion on the agenda.

It is worth remembering that, for example, last Wednesday the European Commission relaxed the obligations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to reach climate milestones: 90% less in 2040 compared to the levels recorded in 1990 and climate neutrality in 2050. Along the same lines, the green legislative executive that was already being negotiated by the EU Council - the body in which the member states are represented - and the European Parliament. However, a few days later, Von der Leyen backed down due to the dust that the movement had raised and, now, she has left the suspension of the directive on greenwashing, which seeks to ban the practice of some companies packaging or labeling their products in a way that suggests they are sustainable when they are not.

Very little chance of success

Von der Leyen broke the cordon sanitaire with the far right, and the European People's Party (EPP) has secured a majority in the European Parliament for the first time in history, along with the far right, without needing the votes of the Socialists, Liberals, and Greens. This parliamentary arithmetic gives the Conservatives a great deal of negotiating power, allowing them to threaten a pact with the other side of the aisle whenever things go wrong, and substantially reduces the influence of the centrist and left-wing forces in the European Parliament.

However, Von der Leyen also does not want to become dependent on the votes of the far right, nor can she overly anger the Social Democrats, Liberals, and Greens. However, the centrist and left-wing forces also want to avoid a break with the EPP: they intend to maintain their influence in the European executive and not force them into having to come to an understanding only with the far right. For this reason, despite the threats against Von der Leyen and her dismantling of the green agenda, they have already stated that they will not let it fall and will vote against the motion of no confidence.

Thus, despite the fact that it will damage the image of the head of the EU executive, who will have to endure criticism from across the political spectrum, there's no reason to believe that the current European Commission is in danger: to introduce a motion of censure on the agenda, only a minimum of 72 MEPs out of 720 are needed to oust the European Parliament. And at the moment, the numbers don't add up.