Risk factors that led the Ripoll cell to radicalize have been identified.

BarcelonaExactly a decade ago, in mid-2015, a terrorist cell was taking shape in Ripoll. It was made up of nine young men and led by an imam. They were young (between 15 and 26 years old at the time) and there were four pairs of brothers. Two years later, one of them drove a van at full speed, destroying everything in his path, on Barcelona's La Rambla. Hours later, other members of the cell sowed panic with knives on the Cambrils seafront. It was August 2017, and sixteen people were murdered. What led nine young men, most of them raised in Catalonia, to embrace jihadism? Today we are a little closer to answering this question with certainty.

According to ARA, the Mossos d'Esquadra (Spanish police), together with the universities of Córdoba, Granada, and Burgos, have conducted an empirical study on the risk and protection factors that led the Ripoll cell to radicalize. The results, to which this newspaper has had access, have been published in the British journal Behavioral Sciences of Terrorism and Political AggressionThe research analyzes up to 68 risk factors (life experiences, personality types, socioeconomic factors, etc.) that could lead young people toward extremism and 26 protective factors (such as education, environment, etc.) that could have prevented the radicalization of the outcomes. Risk factors linked to psychological beliefs, such as the feeling of being threatened by Western society, and experiential factors, such as having experienced traumatic events in life or exposure to violent media, are the most prevalent of all. Caminos, promoted by the General Information Commission of the Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan Police) and coordinated by the Central Unit for the Prevention of Violent Extremism, includes 123 technological tests, 25 physical tests, 18 virtual tests, and other supplementary reports. "We think science could come out of this," the same sources comment. terabytes information to fill in each box for each risk factor for each cell member. From there, it was possible to determine which factors were most prevalent. However, they did so with "unfiltered" information, without reading the conclusions of previous Mossos reports to avoid contamination. "It was a very thorough task," note sources involved in the study. The goal was not to establish causal relationships, but rather the absence or presence of these factors.

The study was signed by Dr. Manuel Moyano Pacheco, a professor in the Department of Psychology at the University of Córdoba, the until recently deputy chief of information for the Mossos d'Esquadra (Catalan police), Superintendent David Sánchez, and other members of the Central Unit for the Prevention of Violent Extremism. The work lasted two years and produced results, according to the same sources, that could "open the door to further studies" and also apply it to operational work against extremism. In fact, it is useful for jihadism, but it can also be used for white supremacy if adapted.

The Mossos d'Esquadra have been operating for years with plans to prevent violent extremism., called PREV. They are like a collaborative "network" in which various civil society actors, such as teachers or Islamic associations, are trained to detect potential cases of radicalization. During 2024, for example, 206 alerts were identified. Now, with better identification of risk factors, this study can be incorporated into prevention work, as explained by the head of the central area of operational coordination of Information of the Mossos d'Esquadra. "We must analyze it very carefully and adapt it to prevention plans," he adds.

Greater effort on protective factors

The study suggests that many risk factors were present in the lives of the 17-A terrorists. Several, in fact, were present in all cases, such as male sex, religious affiliation, segregationist attitudes, the West's confrontation with Islam, or a connection to the group (reinforced by family relationships).

Information sources comment that people's identities are made up of empty and full drawers. Often, extremists fill empty drawers. But why are they empty? There are several risk factors that can cause this. 80% of the members were under 25 years old, 70% belonged to a low socioeconomic level, 50% were unemployed, 80% had suffered traumatic events (such as parental separation, academic failure, or abuse), and 90% were thrill seekers. And more: 70 percent lived between two cultures, 80 percent had previously perpetrated violence, 60 percent had been victims of violence, 90 percent were of foreign origin, 70 percent received social assistance, 50 percent had a police record, 70 percent had engaged in impulsive behavior, and 50 percent had engaged in behavior.

However, the protective factors did not do their job of preventing radicalization.There was only one central factor, and that was having friends outside the cell. Therefore, information sources conclude that more efforts should be put into these factors. These include, for example, social integration (present in 60% of cases), having a job (only half were employed), or education (yes, in which case 90% had completed compulsory secondary education).

Some studies suggest that Islam is precisely a protective factor. However, in this case, the young people were not well-versed in the religion before becoming radicalized, and therefore, it was not a protective factor either. In other words, real knowledge of Islam did not undermine the jihadist ideology instilled by the imam. In the Ripoll cell, it is considered that radicalization was complete among three members: the older siblings, and that the younger siblings acted more under the influence of the older members (who in many cases acted as parents in the absence of paternal figures) than out of belief in extremist ideology. It remains to be seen how this alliance between the Mossos d'Esquadra and academic research will continue and whether it can extend to areas beyond radicalization.