Berlin has woken up, and this can change everything
BarcelonaThe dispute between Washington and Berlin over the war in Iran is the gravest diplomatic crisis that can exist between the United States and the European Union. Of Pedro Sánchez, the first leader of the European Union who openly defied Donald Trump, it was said that he was in a relatively comfortable position to stand up to the White House's demands: a medium power without excessive foreign policy pressures, with a population with a fairly marked anti-militarist and anti-American sentiment and, above all, 3,600 kilometers away from Kyiv and, therefore, from the most immediate Russian threat. But Germany is not Spain, nor are the other countries that, following Madrid's example, have been adopting a more combative stance with Washington: Italy, Ireland, France, Poland and, even outside the EU, the United Kingdom. The capital of Europe, and this will hurt Emmanuel Macron, remains Berlin. That Friedrich Merz now confronts Trump is a transcendently important turning point for Europe.
the strategy of condescension, of fear, of not upsetting him does not workthe strategy of condescension, of fear, of not upsetting him does not work. But the problem is the usual one. Europe sinned out of naivety, did not do its homework when it should have, and has found itself in a position of too vulnerable dependence on Washington – and on Moscow and, probably, on Beijing–. Europe's current condemnation is primarily European.
Now Trump has ordered the withdrawal of 5,000 soldiers deployed in bases in Germany, a surprising decision –although nothing surprises us anymore–. Strategically, it is bad news for Europeans: American protection continues to be necessary because strategic autonomy is for now a utopia and war has been installed on the continent for four years. But symbolically, the reading can be positive: if maintained, Berlin's awakening is the clearest sign that Europe's awakening is irreversible. With microphones off, relevant voices from Brussels have long admitted that the United States' threats to invade Greenland represented an irreversible ideological break for most capitals in the community club. Even if Trump leaves the White House in three years, Washington will hardly be seen again as a reliable partner in a world that has mutated to unpredictable. On this path, Europe's problem has always been time and will: it needs years and consensus among all partners to free itself.
Precisely this week, Chancellor Merz appeared dressed in military uniform and his government announced a massive rearmament to turn the army into a superpowerdenying support to Hormuz and openly calling the joint operation of Washington and Tel Aviv illegalhas one of the best –and most modern– armies in the world. If analyzed in purely military terms, the entry of Ukrainians into the community club would represent a notable leap in quality for Europe's capabilities.
At the origin of the tension between Berlin and Washington are Tehran and Germany's criticism of how the U.S. has managed the war in Iran. Also, Merz's need to find an external culprit for the profound structural crisis that Germany is experiencing, but that is another topic now. The consequences for the United States of the very poorly calculated third Gulf War will be diverse and profound. It is paradoxical that it has been in Iran – and not in Ukraine or Gaza – where Europe has decided to stand up to Trump, denying him support in Hormuz and openly calling the joint operation by Washington and Tel Aviv illegal, denying him support in Hormuz and openly calling the joint operation by Washington and Tel Aviv illegal. If the war in Iran – now on hold but pending escalation – has been a relevant chapter in European awakening, it would be good for the effect not to dissipate when Trump changes his mind and says that his German friends are indispensable partners. After all, after Iran, Cuba may come, but also Greenland or the final blow to Ukraine.
Portuguese fado, a European music, recurrently speaks of a feeling that now makes one think of Europe's political moment with the United States: an old love, which has turned into pain, but which is hard to leave behind. In essence, geopolitics is also a story of loves and heartbreaks. "Talk to me about today's hours. Don't talk to me about the past anymore. / Today I follow other paths. I made your arms a prison," sang Amelia Rodrigues in Aquela rua.
