Americans are more worried about the price of oil than about the war.

WashingtonAt four corners of the Capitol, where Donald Trump is trying to pass an extra $200 billion for the Iran war, the conflict has taken on a more mundane, but no less troubling, form. The price at the Exxon pump on Capitol South has jumped from about $2.96 a gallon—roughly three liters—to $5.39. Miranda, filling up her maroon Honda, notices as we speak. “But it was $2.96 a few weeks ago. My God. I’m definitely not filling up today,” she says, sticking out her sleeve, her eyes still wide as oranges.

The conflagration ignited by Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu in the Middle East may seem distant to Americans, but it doesn’t exempt them from the smoke clouds choking the energy market. On the street, Miranda, like other citizens, responds with a certain apathy when asked about the war. "Look, I'm a Democrat and this war is wrong. But for me, the biggest problem with this president is ICE. I live in Mount Pleasant, and the other day I saw ICE kidnap a poor kid again. And, of course, then we have this," explains Craig, whose luck is between 3.9 out of 37 and 16.

Craig admits he's not very familiar with the trade flow through the Strait of Hormuz, even though its blockade is what has driven up gasoline prices. "I'm probably not the best person to ask why I haven't been following it much. I know things like oil pass through Hormuz," he explains. A survey conducted by Ipsos During the second week of the war, a survey showed that half of Americans (51%) said they had heard "a lot" about the bombings, while the other half answered "a little" or "not at all." When asked, "How much do you personally care about what is happening in Iran?", only 17% responded "a lot," while more than half said "a little" or "not at all."

The survey's results are palpable on the streets of Washington. Even in one of the most Democratic cities in the country, it's difficult to find someone who claims to be very concerned about the war. In fact, if you try to start an interview with the question "What do you think about the war in Iran?", most people smile politely and reply that they don't have time to answer, or justify their inability to speak with a journalist because they are government employees. However, when asked how they are coping with the rising price of oil, everyone answers immediately.

"It's sad that there's a war, but with Trump, it was already predictable that we'd have this chaos and that the cost of living would rise," India explains from inside the car. "The worst part is that we're the ones who will suffer, because he's damn rich and won't even notice. This gas station is one of the cheapest in the city, and I've gone from paying $42 to fill up the tank to paying about $50," adds the 26-year-old while waiting at the Sundora station located between N Street and N Street. DoorDash—a Glovo-style app—admits that it's already readjusting its lifestyle to adapt to the price increases.

Time may be on Trump's side

The fact that war remains an abstract concept in the minds of most Americans, only becoming tangible when it comes to paying the price, is what still gives Trump a lifeline. There are eight months until the November midterm elections. More than enough time for the conflict to fade into a distant memory if the US president can tame the price of oil.

The focus of public debate has already shifted from the nonexistent White House narrative and the lack of clear objectives in the military campaign in the Middle East. Now, what dominates the headlines in American newspapers and on television is the evolution of crude oil and its impact on American households. Before February 28, the day the United States and Israel launched their joint attack against Iran, a barrel of crude oil hovered around $70. From then on, the price climbed steadily, reaching dizzying peaks of nearly $110 a barrel. This represents a 60% increase, which has been mitigated by the release of approximately 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The oil release, which began this week and will last for 120 days, will leave the country's reserves at approximately 243 million barrels, 41% less than the current 415 million. This will bring the strategic reserve to its lowest level since 1982, according to Energy Department data. Furthermore, the Pentagon has warned President Trump against embarking on a war with Iran. It will further deplete the US military's dwindling arsenal of ammunition.

When Miranda, Craig, and India were complaining about the price of gasoline, it was Tuesday. It was still a day before Israel bombed the South Pars oil field and Iran responded with a wave of attacks on Gulf refineries. This episode has driven prices even higher (to $115 a barrel) and made the disagreements between Trump and Netanyahu increasingly evident. The US president was saying at the time that he would not send troops to the ground, while the Israeli leader insisted on the need to escalate the war with a ground operation. However, as always, Trump is playing with ambiguity: "We will not deploy troops anywhere. Now, if we wanted to, we wouldn't tell you. But we will not deploy troops."

Although India claims it is already calculating where it can reduce its spending, the reality is that the rise in oil prices has not yet impacted the price of the average American consumer basket. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell explained that they had decided to freeze interest rates because it remains to be seen how the "oil shock" will affect inflation. Powell emphasized that the increased cost of living experienced by citizens has even more to do with tariffs than with the Iran war. The effects of the conflict have yet to fully materialize. Meanwhile, import tariffs are becoming increasingly noticeable as companies deplete the stockpiles they accumulated before the levies took effect, aiming to avoid a drastic price increase.

The White House is aware that the economic situation is becoming increasingly dire. Trump promised during his election campaign that he would lower the cost of living, but now that he's president, the cost of living keeps rising. To try to contain the economic impact of the war, the White House is adopting unorthodox measures. After lifting sanctions on Russian oil, on Friday night the Treasury Department announced that it will also allow the purchase of Iranian oil already at sea for thirty days. Washington is lifting sanctions on the country it is waging war against.

The depth of the Trumpian rift

The economic hardship caused by the Iran war is also widening the rifts within Republican and Trumpist ranks. The president's circle is increasingly divided, not only over the cost of living, but also over his broken campaign promise not to involve the country in any more foreign wars. Counterterrorism chief Joe Kent resigned from his post this week while reproaching Trump for not living up to his well-known slogan ofAmerica First(America First). Kent is the first figure within the administration to publicly resign over the Iran war. Until now, the few voices critical of the Republican magnate had only been heard in Congress—Representative Thomas Massie—or among far-right circles, as is the case with Tucker Carlson or former Representative Marjo. Well, despite the division that is visible on the surface, the polls show a very different picture: one New poll conducted by Ipsos between March 12 and 14 It highlights that 76% of Trump voters in 2024 support the war. Furthermore, 71% say their support remains the same as on day one despite the protracted conflict. The only issue that appears to be a turning point is the issue of sending troops. 58% are against it.

After saying on Thursday that he would not send troops, on Friday night Trump announced via the social network Truth Social that he is "considering drastically reducing" the military deployment in Iran. The tycoon argued that the objectives for which he has gotten himself into this mess are now close to being achieved.