The Iran war exposes the vulnerabilities of the US defense system in the region

WashingtonThe conflagration ignited by Donald Trump in Iran is spreading and threatening to consume alliances in the region. The ayatollahs' regime is bringing the war provoked by its transatlantic partner to the rest of the Gulf states: the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Oman have all been targets of Iranian missiles and drones. For decades, all these countries have been forging military alliances with the US—whether in the form of bases or cooperation agreements—to secure their oasis of stability and prosperity. Now, the Iranian attacks and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz confront these petrostates with a reality far different from what they anticipated: the alliance with the US, instead of having a deterrent effect, is dragging them into a conflict that threatens their economic model.

This is not the first time that the Arab countries of the region have been caught in the crossfire between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Last summer, during the Twelve-Day War, Tehran attacked the US base at Al Uleid (Qatar) in response to the bombing of its nuclear facilities. However, what most strained relations among Arab countries was not so much that attack—the Iranian regime had given advance warning—but rather another, less well-known episode that occurred between Washington and Riyadh. During those days in June, the two THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) air defense systems that the United States had deployed to Israel were firing relentlessly at Iranian missiles. The demand was so intense that the possibility of also deploying Saudi Arabia's THAAD system was raised. The proposal, according to US officials in the Wall Street JournalThis did not sit well with the Saudis, who were also on high alert due to the conflict. Ultimately, it was not necessary to relocate the weaponry, but it highlighted a significant weakness within the US defense system. In just 12 days, approximately a quarter of the entire ammunition inventory was used up.

South Korea's THAAD warning

In total, the United States has eight THAAD systems, at least two of which are deployed in Israel and one in Jordan. The only two systems permanently deployed by the U.S. military are the one on Guam in the Western Pacific and the one in South Korea, which are intended as a deterrent against China and North Korea. Or rather, were. This week, Washington has mobilized the THAAD unit deployed in South KoreaBeyond provoking tensions with another ally and further questioning the extent to which the US is a reliable partner in defensive terms, the fact that the military is moving this THAAD system is a bad sign regarding US defensive capabilities. The Pentagon had already warned Trump against embarking on any war with Iran. because ammunition reserves were dwindling After a year of supporting Israel, the THAAD mobilization. South Korea confirms, once again, the warning from the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine

The range of targets in Iranian attacks against petrostates extends from military locations to civilian structures. The latest satellite images analyzed by CNN They show how Tehran is attempting to weaken the air defenses of the Arabian Peninsula by attacking US radars that detect drones and missiles. Several military installations in Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, associated with THAAD radar systems, have been targeted by Iran. These radars are key to activating air defense systems.

So far, it has been confirmed that Jordan's THAAD system has been destroyed. The ayatollahs are focusing on what they consider the current Achilles' heel of the US military: an expensive defense system compromised by a dwindling arsenal, compared to the much cheaper and more readily available Shahed drones.

Straining relations with the U.S.

The damage Iran intends to inflict on itself with its attacks is not merely military, but also moral. Tehran has also flown drones in civilian areas, knocking on the doors of local residents and disrupting the normalcy necessary for the economy to function. On Wednesday, two Iranian drones crashed near Dubai airport, and Bahrain had to evacuate several aircraft due to the conflict. Thousands of flights have been canceled because of the conflict. However, compared to the consequences of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the economic impact of the air blockade is less significant.

The conflict provoked by the United States and Israel is jeopardizing the economic model that petrostates in the region have developed over the past 20 years. Initially, Iran's attacks were intended to pressure Arab countries into intervening on its behalf and restraining Washington. But now it appears they are seeking to further erode the alliance between the Trump administration and its partners in the region.

The new Supreme Leader, Mokhtaba Khamenei, has already shown in his first speech that he does not intend to surrender and will continue to block the Strait of Hormuz. The longer the conflict drags on, the greater the risk that the rejection these countries have been showing toward Iran will turn against the United States. This is yet another collateral damage that the Republican president seems not to have considered: that all the efforts to strengthen alliances and business with Qatar, Saudi Arabia and similar countries be drowned by the bombings.

Trump's first presidential trip after returning to the White House last year was precisely a tour of the Middle East, with stops in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. One tour by the petrostates, which was marked by the shadow of the president's family businesses. Some of these businesses include, for example, a recent agreement to build aluxury golf resort in Qatar through a Qatari real estate company, or the transfer, by the Trump organization, of its brand to two new projects in Saudi Arabia, in collaboration with Dar Global, a London-based real estate developer and subsidiary of the Saudi real estate company Al Arkan.