The world prepares for the arrival of a super-child: how can it affect Catalonia?

BarcelonaThe world is looking towards the Pacific with unease. Forecasts from major international climate agencies warn of the probable formation of what has popularly been dubbed a super-Niño over the coming months in this area of the planet. An episode of the El Niño phenomenon much more intense than usual, capable of shaking global climate. Its consequences could range from extreme droughts to torrential rains in different parts of the planet, but above all due to a clear and general rise in temperatures.

Thousands of kilometers away, in Catalonia, the Balearic Islands, and the entire Mediterranean area, its evolution is also being closely monitored, as, although its effects would not be immediate, experts warn that in the medium and long term they could end up influencing the rainfall patterns and temperatures in our region. And all this with the mark of global warming and the climate crisis, which can influence the behavior of this phenomenon. Furthermore, as has happened before, we know that with more ambient and sea heat, rainfall episodes, even if scarcer, can be more torrential and generate deeper damage.

Forecasts indicate that it is practically assured –with a 90% probability– that El Niño will develop in the coming months. And there is a 50% chance that this phenomenon will be strong or very strong, according to data from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provided by the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (Meteocat) to the newspaper ARA.

“Precursors are being detected in the western Pacific Ocean that indicate an El Niño is developing”, explains Vicent Altava, technician from the Applied Research and Modeling area of Meteocat. In fact, the Copernicus climate change service has confirmed that the average global ocean surface temperature - excluding the poles - was the second highest in an April, only below the record of April 2024, when the last El Niño occurred.

"Climate models clearly point in the same direction and predict, with a high level of confidence, the establishment of an El Niño episode that will gain more strength in the coming months," explains Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of climate prediction at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), in a statement. “It could be an intense episode,” he adds. According to WMO forecasts, the first effects of El Niño will begin to be felt in the Pacific region between May and July of this year. In any case, the peak of the phenomenon would occur next winter, especially between December and January.

El Niño causes a overheating of the waters of the equatorial Pacific, which in the case of being strong can be more than 1.5 °C, but if, as some forecasts indicate, the phenomenon is very strong, the marine warming can reach more than 2 °C, with all the consequences that this sudden thermal change can entail worldwide. “El Niño is the most potent and powerful natural climate variability mechanism on a planetary scale,” states Altava.

Heat records and effects in Catalonia

The Niño has global effects and, therefore, Catalonia will not be left out. The phenomenon usually causes a rise in temperature worldwide, and an irregularity in rainfall, with droughts in usually humid areas, and torrential rains in normally more arid regions.

In our case, its effects arrive indirectly and much later, as we are literally on the other side of the world from the Niño's epicenter. According to Altava, its consequences take between 13 and 16 months to reach Catalonia from the start of the episode. Therefore, we will not notice them until next year, just when the phenomenon is already in its final phase in the Pacific. “To reach us, the effects of the Niño have to cross a long journey of thousands of kilometers: the Pacific, the American continent, and the Atlantic Ocean,” recalls the Meteocat expert.

That said, higher than normal temperatures are guaranteed in Catalonia and worldwide, and in the context of global warming, this suggests that temperatures never seen before could be reached. “It is clear that if the Niño is strong or very strong, record global temperatures will be broken in the coming months; in Catalonia, we have already had extremely warm years with annual values 2 °C above average, but this phenomenon could also facilitate new records being reached,” explains Altava.

But what will happen with rainfall? “Usually, the Niño is a precursor to little rain and droughts in the western Mediterranean,” warns Altava, who adds that the wet period we are experiencing and which has taken us out of the historic drought “should be ending and it would be time for a Niño, from a statistical point of view.” According to the expert, the Niño could cause the next autumns and springs – usually rainy seasons in our region – to be dry.

According to the expert, the latest Niño precedents indicate that the areas that usually suffer most from pluviometric deficit in Catalonia during these episodes are the eastern Pyrenees and sometimes the Guilleries, directly impacting the state of the reserves in the internal basins. The Iberian System also, which would affect the Els Ports area.

A year to prepare

Faced with these forecasts, several questions arise: are we prepared to live through such extreme phenomena? Have we learned from the last drought and recent heat records? The Catalan Water Agency maintains the forecast that by 2030, 70% of drinking water will be guaranteed, mainly thanks to planned measures to promote regeneration and desalination.

But it is also very important to apply strategies to mitigate the impact of high temperatures and extreme phenomena on people's well-being and health. The Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) calls for the promotion of more green spaces in cities.

“As indicated by the World Health Organization, each neighborhood should have 30% vegetation cover; and not only should green spots be created, but vegetation should be distributed to have complete routes protected from the sun's impact, guaranteeing active mobility for people without endangering their health”, assures Carlota Sáenz de Tejada, ISGlobal researcher.

A study led by this center concludes that more than 4% of deaths in cities during the summer months are due to urban heat islands, and that a third of these deaths could be avoided if 30% tree cover were achieved in cities. Furthermore, this measure can reduce urban temperatures by up to 1.3 °C, although according to Sáenz, this thermal decrease can occasionally reach up to 7 °C.

According to Sáenz, administrations must take into account that the species to be planted in cities should be resistant to heat and extreme phenomena, with a high capacity to absorb urban pollution and requiring little water maintenance.

She also states that climate shelters should be promoted and that bioclimatic housing designs should be favored. “Buildings should have more awnings, good thermal insulation, natural ventilation, and roofs and facades should be repainted with light colors to avoid overheating the interior”, she assures.

“These strategies will make air conditioners the last resort, as if we overuse them, we will further increase the outside temperature”, points out Sáenz, warning that high electrical demand for cooling can cause future outages and infrastructure problems.

Regarding schools, ISGlobal highlights that most were built in a different climatic context where heat was not an issue. The center proposes measures such as naturalizing outdoor areas for more shade, installing ceiling fans and blinds, or, according to Sáenz, “proposing schedule changes or holding classes outdoors” during intense heat.

For their part, sources from the Generalitat consulted by ARA explain that the Government remains “firm” in the roadmap of the 2021-2030 Climate Change Adaptation Strategy to implement “country-level” policies and decisions to adapt and “mitigate” the effects of the climate crisis.