The inertia of the Catalan economy will compensate for geopolitical uncertainty: GDP will grow by 2.3% in 2026, according to the Government

BarcelonaThe positive momentum of the Catalan economy will offset the geopolitical uncertainty caused by the war in Iran and the trade tensions over the tariffs of the President of the United States, Donald Trump. According to the latest macroeconomic scenario for Catalonia, published this Monday by the Department of Economy and Finance of the Generalitat, Catalan gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) will grow by 2.3% in 2026, in line with the forecasts for the Spanish economy and above the main economies of the euro area. Likewise, the Government expects about 100,000 jobs to be created in the next two years and the employment rate to fall to 8.3% by 2027.

The data identify domestic demand as the main driver of growth in 2026, with a positive contribution of 2.5 points. Within this category, the increase in public administration spending, by 3.4%, and the rise in household consumption spending, by 2.6%, stand out. In the latter case, however, the increase is lower than the improvement recorded during 2025, which was 3.9%.

On the contrary, the external balance will have a negative contribution to GDP growth for 2026, specifically two tenths of a percentage point. In this regard, the Generalitat indicates that both exports and imports will slow down their growth rate to 2.2% and 3.5% annually, respectively.

Despite a scenario marked by uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, the Catalan economy will continue to advance at a faster pace than the average for the euro area as a whole (estimated at 1.1%) and for the major powers on the continent such as Germany or France, with expected growth of 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. However, the macroeconomic forecasts also indicate that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is already affecting the price of oil and warn of a greater deterioration if the conflict is prolonged.

More adverse scenarios

Although the scenario drawn by the Generalitat already takes into account impacts such as the increase in inflation, the forecasts published this Monday add two more serious scenarios. In a scenario defined as "adverse", it is estimated that Catalan GDP will improve by 2.1% in 2026, while in a "severe" scenario – in a context of a more marked slowdown – the economy would expand by 1.9%.

Looking ahead to 2027, the central scenario of the projections observes a growth of Catalan GDP of 1.8%, following a similar trend to that foreseen for the Spanish economy as a whole. In the adverse scenario, the improvement would be slightly lower for 2027, at 1.7%, while in the severe scenario, GDP expansion would remain at 1.3%.

Reduction of the unemployment rate

The Generalitat's forecasts also point to employment growth for the 2026-2027 biennium, but at a less accelerated pace compared to previous years. Thus, employment is expected to grow by 1.6% this year and 1% in 2027. In this case, the Generalitat does not present different scenarios depending on the evolution of the geopolitical situation.

This trend would translate into the creation of nearly 100,000 jobs in two years and an unemployment rate that would fall to 8.3%. Despite the optimistic outlook compared to other major European economies, the Generalitat highlights a possible loss of confidence among economic agents and a tightening of financial conditions that could delay investment and hiring decisions.