The war in the Middle East lowers global growth by up to two tenths
The entity maintains for Spain the forecasts from March as the largest economy in the EU that will grow the most
BarcelonaThe impact of the war in the Middle East reduces global economic growth by two tenths for this year. While in the latest report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) – published in January – an impulse of 3.3% was projected globally, after the outbreak of the conflict and the derivative of the energy crisis, an advance of 3.1% is now forecast. The entity's forecast is based on the assumption that the war will be resolved by mid-year, but the organization also presents two more adverse scenarios in which the impact of the conflict would be even greater: an intermediate one in which the economy would be reduced by eight tenths, to 2.5%, and the worst, in which global growth would fall to 2%. The new forecast also assumes three tenths less growth than registered during 2025, when it grew by 3.4%.
Regarding the forecast for Spain, the IMF already updated its growth forecast at the end of March, taking into account the impact of the war. Now, with the new April report, it maintains the outlook at 2.1%. The forecast, however, does represent a setback compared to the increase expected before the conflict broke out: in January, the IMF projected a growth of 2.3% for the Spanish economy. Regarding the report from last month, the gross domestic product (GDP) estimated for the Spanish state for 2027 also does not vary, when it is expected to advance by 1.8%, also one tenth lower than the forecasts made by the entity in January.
The impact on economies
According to IMF data, this downgrade in growth prospects will impact emerging markets and developing economies above all. In fact, the report by the Washington-based institution does not foresee a major impact on "advanced economies," which include the euro area, the United States, Canada, and Japan, among other powers. Specifically, it does not update the growth figures for these countries as a whole, which it maintains at 1.8% for 2026. However, if the economies that comprise it are broken down one by one, notable differences are observed. This is the case, for example, of US GDP, which is expected to grow by one tenth (2.5%) more than what was indicated this January. The other side of the coin would be the United Kingdom, for which, compared to the report from the first month of the year, a fall in growth for this country of 5 tenths is foreseen, down to 0.8%.
As for the eurozone, the IMF reduces its growth forecast for this 2026 by one tenth, to 1.2%. Furthermore, this downgrade is extended for 2027, when the outlook sinks by two tenths compared to the January report. Among the major eurozone economies, the fall in the projected increase in Germany stands out, which stands at 0.8% (-0.3 compared to the previous forecast). On the other hand, despite the slowdown in Spanish growth due to the impact of the war, as assessed by the Ministry of Economy, the State "will continue to lead the economic growth of the eurozone countries." "Spain faces the shock of the conflict in the Middle East from a position of strength," they celebrate.
As expected, the economies most affected by the conflict are those in the Middle East. As the institution's report shows, growth in the region is expected to fall by 1.9% compared to the latest projections and only rise by 2%. This drop in forecasts contrasts with the trend they had maintained until now: last year, for example, they grew by 3.6%. Specifically, Iran's economy goes from an expected growth of 1.1% to a contraction of 6.1% in 2026.
