Oil, dollar and holidays: what awaits us this summer

Summer is approaching and with it, holidays. But this year, the combination of persistent inflation and sky-high oil prices will make travelling more expensive than ever. The impact on flights is direct and unavoidable. Fuel is the main operating cost for any airline, and with oil prices practically doubling since February, their margins have plummeted. The logical consequence is that tickets will go up in price.

What is more surprising is the possibility that airlines may modify the price of a ticket after you have bought it. Yes, there is a clause that allows it; it must be buried among the fifty pages of small print that we all accept without reading.

That said, it would be an extraordinarily unpopular measure, and I very much doubt that any major operator would dare to do it. Similarly, warnings about massive flight reductions due to lack of fuel seem to me more like media alarmism than a real threat.

What is certain, without a shadow of a doubt, is that flying will be more expensive. However, not all is negative. There is good news for European travellers: the weak dollar. With an exchange rate fluctuating between 1.15 and 1.20 dollars per euro –and a similar situation with the Japanese yen–, once at your destination, your wallet will notice it positively.

The United States, Japan, and a large part of the world are, paradoxically, more affordable than a few years ago. And here comes the great paradox of the summer. While Europeans think twice about whether they can afford to fly, Catalonia is preparing to break a new tourism record, in an upward trend that seems to have no ceiling. And the visitor who is growing the most? The American.

The same tourist who should feel the pinch of a weak dollar, turns out not to be deterred. Perhaps for certain types of traveller, price has never been the deciding factor.