The Government foresees spending almost 5% more next year

BarcelonaThe Government has launched the work to draft the Generalitat's budgets for 2027. As advanced by the Minister of Economy, Alícia Romero, in an interview with ARA, the Catalan administration has given the starting signal with a view to having accounts for the next fiscal year. The Catalan executive has agreed to set the non-financial, non-earmarked spending ceiling of the Generalitat for 2027 at 43.191 billion euros, 4.9% more than in the approved 2026 budgets. In absolute values, this represents an increase of 2.021 billion with respect to the figures of the current fiscal year.

This ceiling, at a great distance from the increase in the 2026 accounts approved in July, which meant 9 billion more because they came from extending the 2023 budgets, is the maximum limit of discretionary spending that the Generalitat will have next year if the budgets are finally approved. The estimate does not take into account the new financing model approved by the Fiscal and Financial Policy Council (CPFF) last Friday, as it cannot be computed if it has not been endorsed by the Congress of Deputies. This reform, which is difficult to approve in Congress and which must previously be approved by the Council of Ministers, would mean about 4.7 billion additional for the Generalitat.

Economic growth of 1.8%

The forecast for non-financial, non-earmarked revenue is 43.873 billion, 8.7% more (+3.528 billion) than in the 2026 accounts. This revenue scenario is built based on the amounts from advances and settlements of the financing model, forecasts regarding tax revenue, and other non-financial, non-earmarked resources. For the calculation, a forecast of 1.8% real GDP growth for Catalonia has been used, in accordance with the macroeconomic forecasts for the fiscal year, according to the Economy department.

Regarding the authorized deficit, a target of 0.1% of GDP (354 million euros) is expected, in line with the objectives approved by the Council of Ministers on July 6. The adjustments derived from the application of the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010), which allow the budgetary result to be expressed in terms of national accounting, will have a negative impact of 1.036 billion euros in 2027, as they include a specific fund to reduce deferred expenditure and thus contribute to the sustainability of public finances. Deferred expenditure—which is moved from one fiscal year to the next—reached a new record of 5.295 billion last year, as reported by ARA.

The revenue forecast, together with the deficit margin and ESA adjustments, set the spending ceiling for 2027 at 43.191 billion euros, 4.9% more than in 2026. This effective increase is compatible with compliance with the 4% spending rule set for 2027, since part of the increase corresponds to the growth of earmarked resources assigned to departments and the financing of debt interest, two concepts that are excluded from the calculation of the spending rule, according to the Ministry of Economy.

The spending limit set today may be adjusted based on the evolution of tax revenues, increases in State transfers intended for financing transferred powers, changes in ESA adjustments, or any other relevant variation in revenues and the deficit target.