The Bank of Spain ends the year with an upward revision of growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026

MadridAnalysts at the Bank of Spain are heading into their Christmas break with a positive outlook regarding the country's economic growth. In line with other international organizations, and also with the Spanish government, the supervisory body forecasts that the Spanish economy will grow more than previously expected in 2025 (2.9%), as well as in 2026 and 2027. And they expect it to grow strongly. Thus, for next year, they estimate a rebound in gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator used to measure the size of an economy) of 2.2%, while in 2027 they project 1.9%, as detailed in the macroeconomic projections published this Tuesday. This represents an upward revision of four and two tenths of a percentage point, respectively, compared to the projections from last September.

Following the optimism fueled by macroeconomic projections, particularly those for 2026, there is a tailwind effect from 2025: as the Spanish economy will close the year better than expected, this will be noticeable at the start of the coming year. In fact, looking ahead to the fourth quarter, the Bank of Spain forecasts robust GDP growth of between 0.6% and 0.7%.

As for the current year, the improvement in GDP growth has been aided by the upward revision of national accounts macroeconomic data—the INE data—for recent months. Also contributing has been greater dynamism in private household consumption due to the strong performance of the labor market and easier access to credit thanks to the easing of financial conditions. Finally, a more positive performance in non-tourism service exports (such as consulting services) has been a contributing factor, contrasting with the weak performance of goods exports in recent months, coinciding with the implementation of Donald Trump's tariffs. In fact, these exports have been the Achilles' heel of the Spanish economy in the third quarter of the year. In the long term, household consumption and private investment will continue to drive economic growth in Spain.