Ryanair and Lufthansa prepare to cancel flights due to the rise in oil prices

BarcelonaThe blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Middle East worries the aviation sector. The possibility of running out of fuel is on the table for major European airlines in the face of a conflict that shows no signs of improvement. The Irish Ryanair, the first airline in Spain, and the German Lufthansa are beginning to consider cutting flights in the coming months. Not to mention, how sensitive they are to the rise in oil prices, one of their main costs, which accounts for 30% of their accounts and will end up affecting ticket prices.

"If this continues until the end of April, we will see risks in fuel supply at the beginning of June. If it extends until May, we don't know what will happen," said Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary. "If there is a risk to 10% or 20% of the supply in June, July or August, we and other airlines will have to start considering canceling some flights or reducing capacity," he remarked.

The low-cost company maintains daily contact with all its fuel suppliers across Europe to assess the supply situation, who assure them that it will remain stable until the end of May. O'Leary pointed out that the United Kingdom is the European market most exposed to a possible fuel shortage due to the amount of oil it imports from Kuwait. According to the International Air Transport Association, between 25% and 30% of Europe's demand for aviation fuel comes from the Persian Gulf, placing it among the most exposed regions.

For its part, Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr has informed staff of the possibility of grounding up to 40 aircraft due to the war in Iran, a measure that will mean cutting its capacity by 5%. The airline is even considering reducing its employees' working hours for the duration of the war in Iran.

The warnings from O'Leary and Spohr come after airlines such as Catalan Volotea have already begun to cut their offerings. Since last week, the airline has started cancelling flights for this April and will be evaluating further suspensions depending on how this new crisis evolves. "For operational reasons linked to the geopolitical instability derived from the conflict in the Middle East, and the sharp increase in fuel prices in the short term, we have made some adjustments to our schedule," state Volotea, co-founded by Carlos Muñoz and Lázaro Ros, also co-founders of Vueling.

Although its forecast was to grow by 12% this year, with around 14 million seats, the war has altered its plans. The airline, based in Barcelona, has not specified which airports will be most affected by the cuts and has only detailed that less than 1% of all scheduled flights operated at a hundred airports, mainly in France, Italy, and Spain, have been cancelled. In Spain, it will affect 0.5% of the total. "These adjustments are necessary to ensure operational stability and to continue offering a solid service, minimizing the impact for the duration of the conflict," added the company, which specializes in connecting medium and small-sized cities.

A rise in fuel costs that particularly affects US airlines, which do not have insurance to protect themselves against temporary price fluctuations as European airlines do. Last week, United Airlines announced a 5% cut in its short-term capacity to reduce fuel costs. The company stated that this item could lead to an additional cost of 11 billion dollars (9.5 billion euros) if the price continues to rise and that it made no sense to "waste money" on less profitable flights that cannot absorb the extra costs.