Gasoline gives no truce and shoots up inflation in September

BarcelonaThe rise in fuel prices –provoked by the sharp increase in oil prices as a result of the war in Iran– gives no respite and triggers inflation in Spain. Thus, this September, the cost of living for families has stood at 4.9% above the same month last year, the highest rate since February 2023, according to advance data from the Consumer Price Index (CPI, the indicator that measures the evolution of the prices of goods and services consumed by families) published this Tuesday by the National Statistics Institute (INE).

This 4.9% is six tenths higher than the year-on-year rate registered in Spain in August, at 4.3%. However, between last month and this September, the CPI has increased by 0.3%, four tenths less than the 0.7% growth between July and August. As for core inflation –which does not include energy or fresh food, which are more volatile– it stands at 3.1% annually.

Since last March, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran, the price of energy has skyrocketed and has once again pushed up the entire shopping basket for families not only in the country, but all over the world. The closing of the Strait of Hormuz –through which approximately 20% of the world's oil and natural gas passed– by the Iranian government in response to the war has contributed to the rise in energy costs.

This global energy price hike is what explains a good part of the price increase in Spain, where the current inflation rate, approaching 5%, far exceeds the 2% annual target set in the medium and long term by the European Central Bank. In this sense, in the seven months following February –the last month before the conflict, since the attacks on Iran began on the 28th–, the prices of consumer goods and services in the country have already increased by almost 3.7%, which suggests that, if the situation in the energy markets remains as it is now, the CPI may remain at figures much higher than those set by the European monetary authorities.

New aid measures

In this context, the Spanish government "has already approved two packages of measures," as it recalled this Tuesday in a statement sent to the media, even though most of the latest measures still in force expire this Wednesday. "Thanks to these measures, inflation has managed to moderate by a point for some months and families have seen about half of the rise in gasoline and diesel prices compensated," the executive's note adds.

Faced with the end of these measures, this very Tuesday the council of ministers must push forward a new legislative package to mitigate the effects of inflation. Within the package, it is foreseeable that the government will maintain aid for diesel for carriers, farmers, and other professional groups that consume it for their activity: "Support for the countryside and transport helps to contain the contagion of the energy shock to the rest of prices," says the Spanish government, which boasts that between March and August the cost of food in Spain became 0.6% cheaper.

The last inflationary crisis took place between the years 2022 and 2023, also as a result of a shock in the global energy supply. In that case, it was due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022, which caused prices in Europe to peak in the summer of that same year, with annual increases that exceeded 10% both in Catalonia and in Spain and 20% in some European countries highly dependent on natural gas coming from Russia.

For now, then, the figure of 4.9% recorded this September is still far from the highs recorded in the inflationary episode of four years ago. It should also be added that, just as happened when Russia cut off the entry of natural gas into Europe, in this case, Spain and Portugal have a smaller dependence on gas from the Persian Gulf, since a good part of the gas they consume arrives on the Iberian Peninsula by pipeline from Algeria.

Therefore, even though the price of crude oil and, by extension, fuels does impact the pockets of families, the fact that the State does not have natural gas supply problems –moreover, it is one of the European countries with the most regasification plants– means that the cost of this fuel and the electricity bill –gas is used to generate electricity– should not, in principle, skyrocket as much as in many other countries of the European Union. Furthermore, among the measures approved by the Spanish government there is also a price cap on gas for consumers.

Rising cost of tourism

Beyond fuels, the INE has also highlighted the cost of tourist packages as one of the elements that explain the high inflation rate, since, although they have become cheaper this month –as is usual with the end of the summer holidays–, the price reduction has been lower than that recorded in September 2025. The state statistical institute will publish the more detailed and broken-down CPI data for September by autonomous communities on October 14.