Catalonia will once again significantly outperform the EU's economic growth in 2025

BarcelonaThe Catalan economy ended 2025 with annual growth of 2.7%, one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the Spanish average, according to data published this Friday by Idescat, the Catalan government's statistical agency. Economic growth, clearly higher than the European average for another year, was driven primarily by business investment and household spending.

Thus, Idescat confirms the growth figure that I had already made progress in FebruaryThis data confirms that Catalonia's gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the size of an economy) registered growth rates last year that far exceed the 1.5% average in the European Union and the 1.4% in the Eurozone, according to Eurostat, the EU's statistical office. At the national level, Spain's GDP increased by 2.8%. In the last three years, both Catalonia and Spain as a whole have shown economic growth figures above the European average and those of the continent's major economies, such as Germany, France, and Italy. Until now, this growth had been concentrated in labor-intensive sectors, such as commerce, restaurants, tourism, and some industries, and a population increase resulting from immigration. However, the 2025 data confirm that, despite continued growth in these sectors, investment is gaining importance as a driver of GDP, particularly business investment in productive assets.

In fact, investment grew by a remarkable 6% in 2025, with investment in capital goods and other productive assets up 6.9% compared to 2024. Investment in construction increased by 4.9%. Household consumption was the other key driver of growth, rising by 2.9% annually, a result of the strong performance of the labor market. The drop in unemployment and record numbers of Social Security contributors are typically a boost to household consumption, and 2025 was no exception. Furthermore, the positive employment figures were also reflected in tax revenue, allowing public administrations in Catalonia to increase their spending by 3.1% compared to the previous year. The negative element, however, was the external sector, due to the adverse international context, marked by geopolitical conflicts and the tariff war initiated by the United States with the return of President Donald Trump to the White House. Although exports of goods and services and spending in Catalonia by foreign visitors grew by 4.5% and 2.3% respectively, the trade balance worsened by 0.8% as a result of the greater increase in imports and spending by Catalans in third countries, which rose by 4.7%, a significant increase. By sector, despite the adverse international context, industry—a sector heavily dependent on the external sector—maintained its performance with an annual increase in activity of 1.5%, with manufacturing slightly outperforming it at a growth rate of 1.7%. Construction also increased, in this case by 5.4%, in a sector marked by housing shortages and ever-increasing prices, while the primary sector left behind the years of drought and, despite problems in the livestock sector due to various epidemics (swine fever, avian flu, dermatosis not 2024). Finally, services, which represent more than two-thirds of Catalonia's GDP, continued to grow, in this case by 3.1%. Trade, hospitality, and transport grew by 4%, more than the 3.2% of professional and real estate activities and the 1.6% of healthcare, administration, and other basic services. The fact that trade and hospitality, sectors traditionally with lower wages and productivity, grew more than professional activities calls into question the possibility of an incipient shift in Catalonia's growth model, one more based on high value-added sectors and jobs. However, the fact The fact that productive investment is one of the main elements explaining growth does suggest that, in the medium term, a change may begin to occur and that more productive sectors intensive in highly skilled labor will increase their weight in the country's GDP, something that some economic institutions, such as the Chamber of Commerce, They have pointed to it as a real possibility.

More growth in the fourth quarter

Regarding the fourth quarter of last year, GDP increased by a strong 0.9% compared to the third quarter and by 2.6% compared to a year earlier. The data published this Friday by Idescat still corresponds to 2025, so it is not affected by the war in Iran. The effects of the conflict on the economy, especially due to the rise in energy prices, will begin to be noticeable with the data for the first quarter of this year, which the Catalan government's statistical agency will release preliminarily on May 8th. However, it should be noted that the US and Israeli attacks on Iran and Tehran's response against the various Persian Gulf countries began on February 28th, so two of the first three months of the year are not affected by the consequences of the war, and therefore the impact on growth will be more limited.