2026 starts with a tightening of credit access

Madrid2026 has begun marked by uncertainty, especially geopolitical due to the war in the Middle East, and it is already noticeable in the credit that banks provide, but also in the demand from families and businesses. On the one hand, during the first quarter of the year (January, February, and March), financial institutions in the State tightened the criteria for granting loans in all segments (mortgages, consumer, and business), but especially in loans to companies, as is evident from a new Bank Lending Survey published this Tuesday by the Bank of Spain (BdE).

However, even though the conflict broke out in March, when the United States and Israel attacked Iran, institutions indicate that this tightening is not a result of the geopolitical scenario, or not solely. In the case of mortgages, it was already foreseen, after a 2025 marked by a mortgage war between institutions. It is true that in the case of credit to companies, financial institutions are "closely monitoring" those companies that may be most affected by the conflict: energy-intensive industries, transport, or some agri-food sub-sectors.

In any case, for the second quarter of the year (April, May, and June), it is expected to continue this way. Banks do anticipate a "stronger and more widespread impact" of the conflict in the Middle East and its economic consequences on the criteria and conditions for granting credit, according to the survey, so the tightening would continue.

On the other hand, demand also decreased in a generalized way across all segments (mortgages, consumption, and businesses) —and it is expected to continue to do so in the second quarter—, although it is true that it did so with greater intensity in the case of small and medium-sized enterprises. This evolution regarding credit applications has been more "negative" than banking institutions predicted at the end of 2025, and in this case, they do link it directly "to the context of uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions".

Financial system "robust"

Despite international tensions and the fear of a progressive escalation of prices, particularly energy prices, the Spanish banking sector closed 2025 in a "good position" to face the tensions without compromising its solvency, assures the Bank of Spain in a new edition of the Supervision Report corresponding to 2025 and published this Tuesday. The underlying reason is "high" levels of capital and liquidity, indicates the supervisory body. "This translates into lower risk for customers and the economy and greater availability of financing," the report states.

In this context, the sector's profitability continues to reach record highs, although its growth "moderated" compared to the trend of recent years. Furthermore, non-performing loans also decreased to 2008 levels, before the financial crisis, and credit quality was also positive, according to the Bank of Spain.