Empty schools: in Barcelona there were not so many I3 places left over in pre-enrollment since the pandemic

BarcelonaWhatsApp group of the AFA of a school in the upper part of Barcelona: "This year the pre-enrollment is going slowly; for now out of 40 places. We wouldn't fill 20." In recent weeks, this message could have been repeated among families from districts such as Sarrià-Sant Gervasi, Horta-Guinardó, Sant Martí or, even, Gràcia. There are fewer and fewer children in Barcelona. It is a reality evidenced by municipal registry data: only one in five households in the city is home to a minor and the proportion of Barcelonans under 16 years of age has fallen to historic lows (11.9%). And, as could be expected, this reality also impacts schools, both public and private ones.

alive enrollment students –those who arrive at a school mid-term–Now, it should be taken into account that this snapshot only reflects the offer and the number of applications that the Education Consortium has received during the pre-enrollment period and that, from now until June –when it is made public which family goes to which school– the administration still has to work to adjust the offer to the demand received. Thus, variables such as the fact that some places must be left vacant for

alive enrollment students –those who arrive at a school mid-term–, as well as adjusting the places in schools where there are empty seats to avoid promoting school segregation.

Between last year and this one, the demand to start school in Barcelona has fallen by 4%, a dynamic that has been going on for a long time. In the last decade, pre-enrollment applications for I3 in the city have fallen by 21%, to the point that next year is predicted to be the first with fewer than 10,000 children in I3 in Barcelona. Behind this phenomenon are various circumstances. "It is confirmed that the demographic winter level is a reality, and increasingly so," describes Xavier Bonal, a professor of sociology at the UAB specializing in educational policy. In fact, from 2013 to 2023 –the year the children who will start I3 next year were born– the number of births in the city of Barcelona has plummeted by 18%.

students on live enrollment – those who arrive at a school mid-term –, as well as adjust school places where there are empty chairs to avoid promoting school segregation.

The decline in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi

Although in Barcelona the I3 pre-registrations have fallen by 4% compared to last year, this trend varies drastically depending on the area. In this regard, Sarrià-Sant Gervasi is the district where the decrease has been most noticeable, with almost 10% fewer applications than last year. They are followed by Sant Martí (-9.9%), Horta-Guinardó (-7%), and Ciutat Vella (-6.9%).

Here, both Bonal and Segurola explain that the variations in each district can be due to very different reasons. On the one hand, Bonal details that in Sarrià-Sant Gervasi there has "always" been a "brutal oversupply," which may have made the impact of the demographic decline higher. We must also add the fact that it is one of the areas with the most private schools, which have enjoyed an increase in interest in recent years –pre-registration applications are only made in public and subsidized centers–. Segurola also points to the possibility of a reduction in "school tourism": families from other neighborhoods or municipalities who enroll their children in the district.

Furthermore, the sociologist also points to internal mobility within the city for work reasons or, again, due to housing prices, which could explain why in other areas the number of I3 pre-registrations has increased in a context of decline. These are areas like the Nou Barris district (+8.4%), which is practically the only one – with the exception of Les Corts, which increased by only 1% – that has seen an increase in applications for schooling.

Managing the oversupply

Beyond the reasons behind this phenomenon, the two experts insist on the fact that a strategy is needed to manage the oversupply of places. "The reduction in students will have a significant impact on small subsidized schools and also on the more complex public ones –warns Segurola–. We will no longer need as many places as we needed in 2008, and this is important as a system." In this regard, Bonals recalls that "the policy of reducing ratios has a limit," but admits that the decision to close a center can sometimes be “counterproductive”: “You can leave a neighborhood without a school." Even so, the sociologist reiterates that given the demographic winter we are experiencing, "there are unpopular decisions that inevitably have to be made."

Although both Segurola and Bonals admit that managing this oversupply "is a very complicated political decision," they warn that the impact it may have on public schools must be monitored, as it is the sector where the administration has more decision-making power regarding the closure of groups. "That is why for some time now, a new decree on subsidies has been requested which should ensure that the planning logic is the same in public and subsidized schools," concludes the sociologist.